On-chain analytics firm Glassnode has explained how a near-term turnaround in Bitcoin holders’ profitability could act as a prerequisite for a sustainable price recovery.
Bitcoin STH Supply in Profit Is Currently Less Than 50%
In a new after on The Supply in Profit, as the name suggests, measures the percentage of BTC supply currently held at a net unrealized profit.
In the context of the current topic, only the surface supply of the BTC STHs is relevant. This cohort includes all addresses that purchased their tokens in the last 155 days. The STHs make up one of the two main market segments based on holding time, while the other side is known as the long-term holders (LTHs).
Statistically, the longer an investor holds onto their coins, the less likely they are to sell them in the future. As such, the STHs are considered the soft side of the market with their relatively low holding time, while the LTHs comprise the diamond hands.
As the STHs’ profit supply chart below shows, the market’s new entrants enjoyed a high degree of profitability before Bitcoin experienced a bearish shift in the fourth quarter of 2025:
The price drop has caused the indicator’s value to plummet, meaning some of the tokens held by Bitcoin STHs have disappeared underwater. The chart shows that the indicator dropped below 50% a while ago and has been in this low profitability zone ever since.
In the past, this cohort being under pressure generally meant a lack of demand in the market. “Demand-side risk appetite generally remains suppressed until it rises above 50% again,” Glassnode said.
Visible in the chart are a few examples of STH supply in gains moving back above 50%, with the latest being the price recovery from the first half of 2025. At that time, a return to gains for the cohort led to a Bitcoin rally that set new all-time price records (ATHs).
Given this trend, it is possible that a turnaround in the metric above the 50% level could once again be meaningful for the cryptocurrency. “Consider this level a prerequisite for any sustainable recovery,” the analytics company explains.
BTC price
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