Bitcoin has outperformed the gold, silver and major U.S. stock indexes since the start of the U.S.-Israeli attack on Iran, recovering above $72,000 even as oil rose above $100 a barrel and traders lowered expectations for near-term Federal Reserve easing.
According to CryptoSlate According to data, Bitcoin has risen 7.3% since the start of the conflict, even rising to a one-month high of over $73,000. The flagship digital asset has since returned to around $72,200 at the time of writing.
Over the same period, gold fell to $5,091, about 4% below where it was before the first attacks hit Iran. Silver fell more than 10%, falling from over $90 to $82 at the time of writing. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq fell 1% to 2%.
The scorecard also places Bitcoin above several traditional benchmarks at a time when the usual macro headwinds faced by digital assets have further increased.
Oil rose about 20% to break above $100 a barrel for the first time in nearly four years amid escalating tensions over Iran. The dollar also strengthened, and investors sharply lowered expectations for near-term interest rate cuts.
This backdrop tends to weigh on crypto due to tighter financial conditions and a more defensive tone in global markets.
However, Bitcoin has rebounded strongly, attracting attention because its rise came after an initial sell-off, and because it held steady while other major assets struggled to regain ground.
From weekend sales to recovery
Bitcoin’s first move after the strikes was consistent with its history during sudden geopolitical shocks.
At that time, CryptoSlate reported that BTC sold off the weekend after the war broke out, with around $300 million in liquidations as traders reduced risk.
Here, Bitcoin fell towards the mid-$63,000s in the immediate aftermath, in line with broader expectations for a high-beta asset amid acute uncertainty.
However, the movement that followed changed the shape of the story.
Instead of staying stuck near those lows as oil prices rose and inflation concerns returned to the market, Bitcoin rallied in the second week of March to break through the $70,000 mark.
That recovery kept oil ahead of gold, silver and the major U.S. stock indexes over the same period, even as crude remained high and traders reassessed the macro implications of a protracted conflict in the Middle East.
Some of that recovery appears to have come from a market that had already cleared a significant amount of leverage during the initial breakout.
Data from CoinGlass showed Bitcoin’s price rising alongside open interest while rebuilding leverage after the flush. Open interest returned to around 88,000 BTC, a level that signals renewed participation without reaching another extreme.
This setup leaves room for volatility in both directions. It also shows that traders returned to the market soon after the initial liquidation, which helped support the price recovery.
ETF flows add support
Another layer of support came from demand for Bitcoin exchange-traded funds.
Facts from SoSoValue showed that Bitcoin ETF spot inflows totaled $586.99 million this week, marking the third strongest inflow week this year.
These flows by themselves do not explain the entire price movement, although they do indicate a steady source of demand entering the market during a period of geopolitical tension and tighter macro conditions.
That combination, a liquidation reset followed by an influx of ETFs, helps explain why Bitcoin recovered faster than many expected after the first round of war-related selling.
The backdrop differs from previous geopolitical episodes in crypto because Bitcoin now trades in a deeper, more institutionalized market.
Spot ETFs have expanded the buyer base, and that broader pool of capital appears to have helped cushion volatility after the initial wave of risk reduction.
Bitcoin’s trading pattern during the conflict has also strengthened its role as a liquid macro asset. The market has been processing both crypto-native signals and global cross-asset signals simultaneously.
Price action around oil, the dollar, and Fed expectations remained relevant during the recovery, but Bitcoin still rebounded stronger than several traditional benchmarks.
At the same time, there is also evidence of stress-induced utility beneath the surface of the market.
After the initial attacks, blockchain data showed a jump in outflows from Iranian crypto exchanges.
These flows were too small to move the global Bitcoin market on their own, although they added another reminder of how digital assets can be used during periods of capital stress and financial disruption.
The image of the bear market still hangs over the rally
Despite the recovery, several analysts continue to describe the market as bearish.
CryptoQuant head of research Julio Moreno said The company’s Bitcoin Bull Score Index reached 30, the highest reading since late October. He said the index has shifted from “extra bearish” to “bearish,” while describing the latest move as a relief rally within a broader bear market.
Additional facts from CryptoQuant has also shown growing market disbelief even as Bitcoin remained above $70,000.
According to this view, the macroeconomic context remains difficult, especially as tensions over global oil trade have still not been resolved. In those conditions, traders continued to lean against the rally rather than chase it.
That skepticism is visible in the derivatives market. Funding rates on Binance have remained negative for about a week, showing that each upswing has been used by many traders as an opportunity to add short positions.
On March 10 and 11, the funding rate on Binance fell below minus 0.006, a level that indicated a heavily short-skewed market.
These circumstances can work both ways. Continued short positioning shows caution, but also creates the possibility of further upside as rising prices force bearish traders to hedge.
Joao Wedson, founder of blockchain analytics platform Alpharactal, added another warning sign. He said Whale vs Retail Delta showed that whales had reduced their long positions against retailers.
When this metric moves into the red zone, it indicates that whales are increasingly inclined to take short positions, while retail traders are trending the other way.
In previous cases, Wedson said, those readings preceded a price drop or coincided with local depletion near a low.
Liquidity zones determine the next step
For now, Bitcoin’s short-term structure remains range-bound, with whale supply overhead and strong bidding support underneath.
Analysts at Bitunix report this CryptoSlate that derivatives liquidation heatmaps show the area around $71,300 as the first major short liquidation and liquidity concentration zone above the current price, making this a short-term resistance level.
MintGlass facts adds to that picture, showing large sales walls between $72,000 and $74,000, creating a remarkable bandwidth of overhead supply.
Meanwhile, the supporting structure under the market is also becoming clearer.
CoinGlass data shows whales stacking their bids between $70,500 and $71,000, with a deeper cluster between $69,000 and $70,000. Bitunix analysts separately identified secondary liquidity support near $69,000, while deeper long liquidation clusters are concentrated around $68,800.
All told, the order book and liquidation data show Bitcoin trading between whale supply above and strong bid support below.
If buyers absorb the selling walls above $72,000, the price could move towards the closer short-leverage zone between $72,000 and $73,500.
However, if that resistance persists, the market could move back toward bid support around $70,500 to $71,000 and, in a deeper pullback, test liquidity around $69,000.