Bitcoin [BTC] has been under persistent bearish pressure, with a downward trend since the October 2025 highs. Amid this long-term downtrend, long-term holders of Bitcoin saw their positions move from extreme profitability to deep losses.
As a result, some long-term investors capitulated and closed their positions at a loss. However, long-term selling at a loss appears to exhaust long-term holders.
Bitcoin LTH activity reached bear market levels
Despite the market’s continued weakness, long-term holders of Bitcoin have significantly reduced spending.
According to DonkerfostLTH activity has declined and is returning to levels normally seen during bear markets. Such a decline, given the prevailing market conditions, indicates reduced sales activity from this cohort.
In fact, the group has reduced profit and loss realization equally. According to Checkonchain According to data, the LTH sell-side risk ratio fell to 0.000395 at the time of writing, after bottoming out in October 2025, indicating exhausted selling pressure.
As a result, long-term holders’ realized gains fell to 1.1 thousand BTC, the lowest level since September 2022. At the same time, their realized losses fell to 2.7 thousand BTC, underscoring the reduced loss-making activity within the cohort.
Such market conditions suggest that fewer holders are exiting the market, regardless of their current position; instead, they have turned to holding on. So most holders have shown market indifference and are currently waiting for the next market move.
Historically, these market conditions have coincided with cycle bottoms, where sellers lost the incentive to sell and weaker hands exited the market.
This creates room for accumulation and prepares the way for a new price movement. Darkfost’s analysis found that reduced activity from long-term holders (LTHs) could keep BTC in a consolidation phase.
What about BTC?
Although long-term holders have sharply reduced spending, this shift has not yet caused Bitcoin’s price to rise. BTC remains structurally weak, with downward momentum still dominating.
At the time of writing, even Bitcoin [BTC] trading at $69,800, following a decline of 0.32% on the daily charts, indicating prevailing downside volatility.
Furthermore, Bitcoin momentum and directional indicators have further demonstrated this structural weakness. Looking at the Directional Movement Index, the positive index barely remains above the negative index, which stood at 22.
At the same time, ADXR remained above ADX, indicating that the trend is weaker than the recent average and continues to lose momentum. Taken together, these indicators point to strong downside risk, and the current situation is likely to persist.
The Future Grand Trend (FGT) indicator clearly shows how likely this trend is to continue. Based on FGT, BTC still has more room to fall, with $63,000 serving as crucial support.
However, because LTHs reduce selling pressure, this provides short-term relief, and continued such behavior could see BTC hold between $65,000 and $74,000.
Final summary
- Long-term Bitcoin holder activity plummeted to bear market levels, indicating reduced selling pressure.
- BTC remains structurally weak, indicating continued bearish dominance.