Bitcoin rose back above $67,000 even as geopolitical tensions between the United States and Iran roiled global markets and put pressure on risk assets.
The recovery has surprised traders who expected a deeper decline amid increased macro uncertainty.
The value fell to a low of $60,030 in the early hours of February 28 as tensions escalated and fear spread across financial markets.
But instead of extending its losses, Bitcoin [BTC] stabilized and rose towards $68,000, recovering a significant portion of the decline within hours.
Such resilience seems counterintuitive. Historically, geopolitical escalations have triggered persistent risk responses, often leading to prolonged weakness in speculative assets.
Bitcoin’s rapid recovery therefore raises a crucial question: does this strength reflect real accumulation, or is it a temporary rally within a broader correction phase?
A well-known pattern from 2022?
Market analyst Benjamin Cowen has called for caution. According to his recent assessment, the current price structure resembles Bitcoin’s behavior during the 2022 Russia-Ukraine conflict.
Bitcoin was initially sold off in 2022 as geopolitical tensions increased. This was followed by a sharp rebound that was interpreted by many as the beginning of a recovery.
However, that recovery formed a lower high before the market resumed its downtrend.
The subsequent decline proved severe. Bitcoin fell about 67%, falling from around $48,189 to a cycle low of almost $15,476.
Source: TradingView
Cowen argues that the current setup may follow a similar fractal.
If the pattern holds, Bitcoin could experience a relief rally in the $70,000-$84,000 range before forming another lower high and extending the broader correction.
Cowen noted:
“It usually takes a while for bear markets to manifest.”
He added that even if March produces upside momentum, the move could resemble the lower-high structure of 2022 rather than a sustained bull cycle.
Cowen has maintained a cautious long-term policy on Bitcoin for months, and this latest analysis reinforces his view that the market may not have completed the corrective phase yet.
Trading below the realized price shifts the risk balance
In addition to the technical structure, on-chain data adds an extra layer of care.
At the time of analysis, Bitcoin was trading below this adjusted realized price, estimated at around $72,700. Historically, this level has acted as a structural support zone during expansion phases.
In both June and September 2023, the price found stability around similar cost basis levels before rising.
Source: CryptoQuant
However, when Bitcoin last broke below this threshold in May 2022, the market experienced continued weakness until March 2023 before returning to stability.
Trading below the realized price often indicates that a large portion of active holders are facing an unrealized loss.
This condition can dampen demand, reduce conviction and increase the likelihood of supply entering the market during recovery periods.
If historical behavior repeats itself, Bitcoin could face an extended period of consolidation or gradual decline before a sustainable recovery emerges.
Liquidation clusters increase volatility risk
The positioning of derivatives further complicates the outlook. Liquidation data shows that the market has significant leverage exposure on both sides, increasing the likelihood of sharp, forced moves.
On the upside, $68,596 represents a high-yield zone where substantial 50x and 100x short positions are concentrated.
A decisive breakout above this level could trigger consecutive short liquidations and strengthen upside momentum.
On the other hand, $65,656 has a similar leverage concentration among long positions. A breakdown below this level could trigger liquidations and increase selling pressure.
Source: CoinGlass
With leverage increased and geopolitical risk unresolved, Bitcoin is in a structurally sensitive position. A decisive move in either direction could trigger a cascade of volatility.
For now, the rally above $67,000 reflects resilience.
Whether it is real strength or a classic bull trap will likely depend on whether Bitcoin can regain the realized price and avoid another lower high in the coming weeks.
Final summary
- Bitcoin’s recovery comes despite rising geopolitical tensions between the United States and Iran.
- The asset now trades below its adjusted cost basis, a development that historically indicates structural weakness.