Bitcoin is once again trading below the $90,000 level as the market continues to drift through a phase characterized by indecision, increasing caution and growing fear. After repeated failures to regain this psychological threshold, price action is beginning to reflect a lack of conviction on both sides, with buyers reluctant to engage aggressively and sellers squeezing any recovery attempt. While the broader trend has not yet completely collapsed, the inability to hold key levels increases the uncertainty surrounding Bitcoin’s next big move.
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Top analyst Darkfost says on-chain signals are starting to reflect conditions that typically occur at the end of extended downturns. According to his analysis, Bitcoin’s unrealized gains and losses are sliding back to levels that have historically only appeared upon exits from bear markets, when the market has already absorbed a deep reset in sentiment. This shift indicates that tension is building beneath the surface, even if the price has not yet entered a full capitulation phase.
Since Bitcoin’s last all-time high, Darkfost notes that many latecomers have entered uncomfortable territory and are facing increasing downward pressure as the market cools. As a result, unrealized gains shrink, unrealized losses increase, and the overall equilibrium continues to deteriorate – an environment that often forces traders to make a decisive choice between holding on due to volatility or exiting under stress.
Decision point for Bitcoin investors
Darkfost highlighted one graphic based on a modified version of NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit/Loss), designed to more accurately reflect investor stress during changing market regimes. Rather than relying solely on the standard market cap, the model includes the realized capitalization of both Short-Term Holders (STHs) and Long-Term Holders (LTHs), and then compares that blended realized basis to Bitcoin’s traditional market cap.
The result is a clearer picture of how much profit or loss there is ‘on paper’ in the market, filtered through a more structural lens. To reduce noise and better define trend shifts, the metric is smoothed using an average, resulting in what Darkfost calls a NUPL.
The key takeaway is that Bitcoin is approaching levels that have historically forced investors into a binary decision. As unrealized gains narrow and unrealized losses expand to these margins, holders are typically faced with two outcomes: hold on and continue to accumulate, or capitulate and hold on to losses. That difference in behavior becomes crucial because it determines liquidity, sentiment and the next guiding trend.
If long-term participants absorb and sustain the pressure, the market can stabilize and move towards recovery. But if selling from stressed cohorts accelerates, the decline could deepen into a broader bear phase. This is why tracking realized and unrealized earnings dynamics remains essential, especially during periods of uncertainty.
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Bitcoin Consolidates After Sharp Weekly Breakdown
Bitcoin is trading around $89,000 on the weekly chart, following a steep sell-off that pushed the price out of its previous distribution zone. The latest candle reflects heavy downward pressure, with BTC down about 4.8% this week and struggling to stabilize near a key pivot point that has served as support and resistance repeatedly throughout the cycle.
After failing to stay above the psychological threshold of $90,000, the market is now trapped in a tight consolidation range, suggesting traders are waiting for confirmation before making a bigger move.
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From a trend perspective, Bitcoin remains vulnerable as it trades below the blue moving average, which now acts as overhead resistance near the low $100,000 region. The rejection of that dynamic level is consistent with the broader structure: BTC peaked around the mid-$120,000s and then entered a sharp corrective trajectory that restarted momentum in early 2026. While the green moving average continues to rise and approaches the current price zone, the market has not yet shown the strength necessary to regain its previous trend trajectory.
Importantly, the weekly structure is now compressed. If buyers can defend the $88,000 – $90,000 region and push BTC back above $92,000 – $95,000, it would signal a recovery attempt towards the moving average. However, a sustained failure here increases the risk of a deeper retracement towards the low $80,000 zone, where demand previously originated.
Featured image of ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com