A recent post from crypto analyst Stockmoney Lizards on X suggests that the current Bitcoin structure gives bears “the perfect opportunity” to short the market to $40,000. His message was accompanied by a chart showing Bitcoin falling below a key resistance since breaking below $100,000, creating a seemingly clean continuation. setup for traders who expect deeper losses.
While the chart shows a similar bearish structure in 2022, the analysis behind his post points to a more layered interpretation of what could happen next for Bitcoin.
The setup that Bears Believe has is finally here
In the chart he shared, Stockmoney Lizards showed how Bitcoin’s latest collapse resembles the 2022 pattern, when price action rejected a key resistance level and fell sharply into what would later become a major accumulation zone. The current structure shows a similar rejection just above the $100,000 zone, followed by a decline below the weekly EMA50. This move has brought Bitcoin into a region similar to the range where accumulation formed in the earlier cycle.
An overlay of the new price action on top of the previous one shows that the path down seems almost predetermined, giving the impression that the Bitcoin price will see a natural decline of up to $40,000 in the coming weeks and months. Bitcoin is currently trading at $90,240. A crash to $40,000 would mean extermination about 55% of its value from here, effectively erasing all the progress it has built over the past two years.
Bitcoin price chart. Source: @StockmoneyL On X
Why the perfect short is not the analyst’s real message
After the post gained traction, Stockmoney Lizards intervened to provide clarity that his message had been taken too literally. His invitation to traders to short $40,000 was deliberately exaggerated, and the market does not behave this way.
He clarified that he does not expect a collapse into a deep bear market. Instead, he believes Bitcoin can consolidatepossibly a local low, but not a long-term outage. Furthermore, he noted that the worst-case scenario would be a decline in the weekly EMA200, and that this is not where bull markets end. The real medium-term forecast is a higher move for the Bitcoin price.
Before Stockmoney Lizards posted the supposedly bearish forecast had shared another analysis describes Bitcoin as close to the final boss on the weekly EMA50 indicator.
Bitcoin price chart. Source: @StockmoneyL On X
That earlier map provided a clearer picture of his true position. In it, he predicted that Bitcoin was approaching a major technical pivot and that it would do just that expected upward movement until the end of December and the first quarter of 2025. Therefore, the weekly EMA50 is the barrier Bitcoin must overcome to launch its next phase of bullish momentum.
Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com