Key Takeaways
Why is BTC a buying opportunity at current levels?
Macro tailwinds and easing selling pressure could reignite Bitcoin’s uptrend, according to Ki Young Ju, CEO of CryptoQuant.
What are the analysts’ projections for BTC?
Staying above $100,000 can help accumulation and price range. But regaining $108k-$110k would be a bullish pivot.
Bitcoin [BTC] has consolidated recent losses above $100,000 and attempted to climb higher towards $110,000 after updating a possible deal to end the US government shutdown.
However, the asset was still under heavy selling pressure, noted CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju. He added,
“There is still strong selling pressure, but if you think the macro outlook is strong, now is a good time to buy.”
Source:
What’s next for BTC: sideways or a bullish pivot?
On average per week, Bitcoin’s realized gains have reached $1-$2 billion since late September. In July, as long-term holders accelerated the sell-off, weekly profit-taking topped $4 billion.
Source: Glassnode
Selling pressure has therefore fallen by half, and an improvement on the macro front could trigger the necessary increase for the next stage.
Some of the macro factors being watched include the end of the government shutdown and quantitative tightening (QT), Fed rate cuts, and the eventual replacement of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell with a more dovish candidate.
Overall, these factors are expected to inject more liquidity into the market and push up risky assets, including BTC.
ETF flows weaken as whales dominate
So far, the overall selling pressure from whales has exceeded the combined demand from ETFs and digital asset treasury (DAT) companies, such as Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy).
For example, the ETFs recorded net negative outflows for the entire month of November, although outflows had moderated somewhat.
Source: Glassnode
This has further weakened and capped BTC’s strong recovery, according to trading firm QCP Capital. The company added,
“DAT activity remains subdued but crucial. Unless existing supply dries up, the near-term base case remains within a range, with upside potential of around $118,000.”
Bitfinex Analysts shared a similar sideways projection, noting that the bullish structure can only resume if BTC regains the STH cost base of $112.5k as support.
For Swissblock analysts, however, BTCs bullish pivot would happen if the $108,000-$110,000 zone is reclaimed and defended as support.
“Hold the structure, retake the $108,000 – $110,000 pivot zone, and momentum starts to ignite. Selling pressure eases and $BTC shows early signals of a bullish reversal.”
Source: Swissblock
At the time of writing, BTC was trading at $105,200, after a brief rejection at $107,500, and was about to activate the bullish pivot.