After a disappointing performance during the week, Bitcoin’s price continued its sluggish action over the weekend. According to data from CoinGecko, the leading cryptocurrency has been hovering around the $102,000 level over the past 24 hours.
While this current choppy price action seems like an improvement over the severe downturn of the past few days, it doesn’t exactly bring calm to the world’s largest cryptocurrency. Interestingly, the latest on-chain data suggests that Bitcoin price is still at risk of further correction in the coming days.
Why the price of BTC could fall around $95,000
In a November 8 post on social media platform X, on-chain analyst Burak Kesmeci said predicted the local bottom for the price of Bitcoin. According to the crypto expert, the flagship cryptocurrency could fall as low as $95,000 before seeing relief and perhaps bouncing back to new price highs.
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The relevant metric here is the Realized Price of Unspent Transaction Output (UTXO) age bands, which evaluate the holding patterns of different investor classes based on their different realized prices. The UTXO age band measure tracks the average price at which Bitcoin holders purchased their coins, compared to how long they have held the asset.
The age categories focused on in Kesmeci’s analysis are the 1 week to 1 month group (green line) and the 1 month to 3 month cohort (purple line), which provide insight into short-term holders’ behavior and overall market sentiment. According to the on-chain analyst, the green line will have fallen below the purple line three times by 2025.
Kesmeci noted that this cross often preceded short-term corrections, including the corrections on February 24 ($99,000 to $76,000) and September 8 ($117,000 to $109,000). Likewise, this cross occurred on November 1, when the Bitcoin price fell from $110,000 to $99,000.
Furthermore, the average drop in Bitcoin price on these three occasions is approximately 13.3%, with a consolidation period of 45 days. Based on this historical pattern, Kesmeci expects the Bitcoin price bottom to be around $95,000 and $96,000, after the most recent crossing of the 1 week to 1 month band below the 1 month to 3 month band.
Kesmeci concluded:
In short, long-term investors are in the red, and this is an undesirable situation for a bull cycle. However, if history repeats itself, Bitcoin could once again “catch its breath” in this region and pave the way for a new rise.
Bitcoin price at a glance
At the time of writing, the price of BTC is around $102,440, reflecting a drop of almost 1% in the past day.
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Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView