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According to cryptoquant analyst Darkfost, long -term Bitcoin Holders are on non -realized profits that are last seen during the market dip of October 2024. At present, those holders show an average profit of 220% on coins they bought and held up for the long term. That figure is surprisingly low given the recent increase in Bitcoin above $ 107,000.
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Lower profit levels than previous peaks
Darkfost used the MVRV ratio – Market value compared to the average costs paid by holders in the long term – to follow these shifts. In March 2024, when Bitcoin pushed to $ 74,500, MVRV hit 300%. When in December 2024, on the peak of $ 108,000, it climbed to 350%. The profit of 220% today, on the other hand, reflects the fact that many holders have bought in the long term at much higher levels than before in the cycle.
The price must rise to match past profits
Based on an average cost basis of $ 33,800, Bitcoin would have to climb to $ 135,200 to restore that profit level of 300%. If the market had to reach the goal of 357% again, prices would have to reach around $ 154,400. Both figures follow with what history tells us about investor behavior – people sell the tendency to sell when the profit reaches large round figures.
📉 Not -Realized profits from LTH continue to fall and are now approaching the levels that are last seen during the October 2024 correction.
The average non -realized profit, based on the MVRV ratio, is currently around 220%.
That may seem high for BTC, but compared to previous … pic.twitter.com/netcmxzvty
– Darkfost (@Darkfost_coc) July 1, 2025
Historical cycle comparisons
If you look further back, show how much space remains. In December 2017, at the $ 19,500 top, long -term holders saw non -realized profit of 4,000%. During the cycle from 2020/2021, Bitcoin stood to $ 63,000 in April 2021 and was MVRV 1,230%. By November 2021 the prices reached around $ 68,400 but not -realized profits For long -term holders had already fallen to 340%.
The recent Outlook of an analyst lines this mathematics, first a cycle top at $ 135,000 in October 2024 ping.
Space for more top, but view the risks
Bitcoin was traded on the basis of the latest figures $ 106,750, Roughly flat in the last 24 hours. Lower profit margins mean that fewer long -term holders are currently itching to sell, which can leave more fuel for higher prices. Still capture on -chain numbers not the whole picture. Spot market flows, ETF movements and wider economic shifts can all cause sharp reversations.
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For now, the evidence points to a market that is not overheat. If Bitcoin follows after cycles, it might continue to climb before holders in the long -term win on levels that are seen in March or December 2024. But investors must balance these on -chain statistics with real -world signals -and be ready for whatever comes.
Featured image of imagen, Graph of TradingView