According to Dune Analytics, Solana-based prediction market BET has reached a new milestone of $20 million in its daily volume facts.
However, a deeper look reveals a downward trend in BET’s number of transactions over the past three days, raising questions about how the $20 million volume was reached.
Still, the milestone is notable considering BET launched less than two weeks ago. This suggests that BET is successfully engaging Solana users interested in blockchain-based prediction markets.
Notably, BET users have wagered more than $23 million on four political bets. More than $20 million of this is earmarked for Kamala Harris winning the popular vote in the upcoming elections, while about $2.3 million is earmarked for Donald Trump winning the 2024 presidential election.
Prediction markets
Decentralized prediction markets like Polymarkets have grown in popularity over the past year, especially with the upcoming US elections. These platforms allow users to pool insights about future events, often offering less biased predictions due to the financial stakes involved.
For context, Polymarket has experienced unprecedented growth, reaching the highest trading volumes and user participation for consecutive months.
However, the rise of these platforms has led to discussion about their role in public debate. Some praise them as valuable social tools, while others claim they are like gambling.
Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin has praised prediction markets like Polymarket for their potential as “social epistemic tools,” arguing that they offer the public a unique way to participate in collective forecasting.
However, critics believe that Polymarket’s election-related markets are more reflective of traditional gambling than unbiased predictions, raising concerns that participants could use these platforms primarily for arbitrage opportunities between prediction markets and mainstream betting platforms.
Additionally, the U.S. Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and lawmakers, including cryptocynical Senator Elizabeth Warren, have expressed concern about the impact of these bets on the public interest and called for their restrictions.