Bitcoin [BTC] was hovering around the $70,000 region at the time of writing, which frames the current imbalance without anchoring at a fixed level.
As the price stabilizes within this range, near-term cost clusters concentrate between $75,000 and $90,000, indicating heavy overhead pressure. At the same time, the earlier drop from above $110,000 to the mid-$60,000s left much of the supply in losses.
Meanwhile, the intensity of the heatmap revealed close supply near $85,000, reinforcing a key resistance zone where sellers could reemerge.
As the price tries to recover, these holders are approaching breakeven, increasing the likelihood of distribution. On the downside, support is forming around the $65,000-$70,000 band, where accumulation previously occurred.
However, Net Unrealized Gain/Loss (NUPL) around 0.23 indicates limited profitability across the network, keeping sentiment subdued.
While this structure remains in place, Bitcoin continues to maintain support, but repeated rejection near a higher cost base continues to limit continued upside momentum.
The STH overhang limits Bitcoin’s upward momentum
Short-term holders’ positioning now defines Bitcoin’s upside limitations within its current range. As the price remains near support zones, STH-MVRV at 0.84, it shows that recent buyers are still about 16% underwater.
At the same time, STH-SOPR The reading of 0.9 confirms that coins are still moving at a loss, reinforcing the weak belief.
With an STH-MVRV near 0.8 and a price below realized levels, most of the supply remains underwater in the near term, reinforcing the weak conviction of holders.
As the price approaches the breakeven zone, these holders exit their positions, steadily increasing overhead supply and limiting upward momentum during rallies.
As these sell orders move closer to the prior cost basis, resistance increases and their continuation is delayed. Until a significant portion of this supply returns to gains, Bitcoin holds support, but upside remains tightly limited by continued sell-side pressure.
ETF inflows are stabilizing Bitcoin, but weak demand in the spot market is limiting its breakthrough
This excess supply continues to shape Bitcoin’s demand structure, with inflows finding it difficult to translate into expansion. While ETF inflows cumulatively exceed $56 billion, they act as a stabilizing force rather than a growth catalyst.
In the meantime, daily Spot volumes approximately $7 billion indicates moderate participation compared to previous expansion phases.
Like the Coinbase Premium Index remains neutral to slightly negative, but the institutional Spot question is not urgent. During rallies, STH-MVRV near 0.84 leaves holders at a loss, keeping exit flows near break-even levels.
As this momentum continues, demand for ETFs absorbs distribution without driving continuation, leaving Bitcoin stable but unable to maintain momentum outside resistance zones.
Final summary
- Bitcoin maintains support near the $65,000-$70,000 range, but the dense supply of short-term holders between $75,000 and $90,000 continues to limit upside momentum.
- Bitcoin ETF Inflows of Over $56 Billion Stabilize Price Action, but Weak Spot Demand and Negative CVD Limit Breakout Potential Outside Key Resistance Zones.