XRP remains under significant pressure as the latest oil shock and broader market turmoil push investors toward a more defensive stance.
The Ripple-linked digital asset is down 26% this year to around $1.34 and is down 54% over the past six months, according to CryptoSlate facts. During the last 24-hour session, XRP fell from around $1.37 to $1.33 before recovering to almost $1.35 at the time of writing.
The move was modest by crypto standards. The bigger signal, however, comes from on-chain and exchange data showing a market still operating through a large group of holders sitting on losses and a trading environment that has lost some of its depth.
Data from Glassnode shows that at current prices, approximately 36.8 billion XRP is being held at a loss. In dollar terms, these unrealized losses amount to approximately $50.8 billion, or roughly 60% of circulating supply.
This leaves a broad group of investors who are still underwater and likely to reduce their exposure as the price approaches their entry level.
This dynamic helps explain why XRP has struggled to turn short-lived recovery into more sustainable progress.
When much of the supply is below cost, rallies can meet a steady stream of sellers trying to get closer to breakeven. In that setup, price strength must do more than just attract momentum buyers. It must also absorb the continued supply from previous holders.
At the same time, the macroeconomic backdrop has increased the pressure.
Rising oil prices and broader repricing of risky assets have prompted traders to reassess their exposure to digital tokens, especially older, more liquid names that often move quickly when sentiment turns.
XRP is involved in that adjustment, although its internal positioning suggests the market was already vulnerable to renewed selling.
XRP’s cost base near $1.44 sets the market
The clearest line in the market is around $1.44, where Glassnode places the realized price of XRP. The realized price is widely used as a proxy for the holders’ total cost base.
When spot trading occurs below that level, the average holder is underwater. This condition often changes the behavior of rallies and turns them into opportunities to restore balance.
For XRP, that cost base gap has become central to the market structure.
With spot That puts the next meaningful recovery zone directly in an area where selling pressure could increase.
Other on-chain indicators support the same view. Glassnode’s Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) remains below 1, indicating that coins moving up the chain are spent at a loss on average.
At the same time, XRP’s net unrealized gain and loss (NUPL) is also negative, indicating that the market as a whole is in total loss territory.
Taken together, these readings indicate that the market has yet to emerge from its loss regime.
However, these measurements do not mean that the XRP price cannot rise. Instead, it shows the hurdle to a sustained rally is higher.
This means that XRP needs enough new demand to free up significant supply from holders who have been waiting for better exit levels. Until that happens, the realized price range will likely remain a reference point for both bulls and bears.
Sell-side aggression shows up in order flow and derivatives
The institutional picture is also less supportive of an uptrend for XRP.
Data from SoSoValue shows that spot
These products are still showing net inflows of about $70 million for the year, although the shift in recent weeks suggests some allocators have become more selective amid rising market volatility.
For context, CoinShares data shows that XRP-focused investment products are the worst performers this month, with outflows of more than $30 million.
The flow picture shows a marginal decline rather than a collapse. In a market that already has a large underwater supply, even small shifts in demand can have an outsized effect.
XRP could remain under pressure without a broad institutional pullback if new purchases slow while existing holders use strength to ease positions.
Meanwhile, the derivatives market also shows that participation has cooled down. Total open interest on XRP has fallen to around $2.25 billion, the lowest level since January 2025.
Open interest tracks the value of outstanding futures contracts and is often used as a measure of speculative appetite. A drop of that magnitude indicates that traders have closed their positions and reduced their directional exposure rather than adding new leverage.
The same caution is visible in digital asset order flow, where the market is dominated by aggressive sell orders.
CryptoQuant’s taker buy-sell ratio is around 0.912, indicating that aggressive sell orders outweigh aggressive buy orders.
In practical terms, the liquidity side is dominated by sellers. That allows buyers to provide liquidity through resting limit orders rather than pushing the market higher with market orders.
With XRP trading around $1.34, this imbalance reinforces the view that the market lacks strong, aggressive demand.
Although XRP buyers are still present in the book, they are not driving the price up in a hurry.
That signal fits into the broader scheme. A market may stabilize for a while as passive buyers absorb incoming supply, but the price usually struggles to build momentum when the more aggressive side of the flow remains dominated by sellers.
The combination of all of the above means that XRP has less upside momentum.
In stronger phases, increasing open interest can strengthen a spot move and add urgency to the tape. In the current setup, a smaller open interest base means that the price is more dependent on outright spot buying to break through resistance.
However, that is not happening because the market is currently dominated by sellers.
The low exchange rate activity increases the sensitivity of the market
Exchange data shows that activity has slowed in a way that could make the next move more abrupt.
CryptoQuant’s 30-day XRP volume The z-score on Binance is around -1.16, indicating that daily trading volume has fallen below the recent average. The latest value corresponds to a daily volume of approximately 27 million XRP, while the token is trading near current levels.
Lower volume does not guarantee greater movement. However, it leaves the market with less support as orders come in in terms of size.
CryptoQuant facts also show that the net number of active wallets depositing and withdrawing XRP on 15 major exchanges has fallen to the lowest level since early 2025, with Binance still accounting for the majority of the activity.
This indicates a market with fewer participants actively repositioning themselves and less urgency from both buyers and sellers.
When portfolio activity and trading volume decline together, order books can become thinner and prices can become more reactive.
Under these circumstances, smaller flows can move the market further than would be the case in a deeper environment. A stable-looking chart can therefore mask a more fragile structure underneath, especially when macroeconomic headlines can shake up asset sentiment.
At the time of printing 14:20 UTC on March 9, 2026XRP is number 5 in terms of market capitalization and so is its price upwards 1.03% in the last 24 hours. XRP has a market capitalization of $83.57 billion with a 24-hour trading volume of $2.3 billion. Learn more about XRP ›
Summary of the crypto market
At the time of printing 14:20 UTC on March 9, 2026the total crypto market is valued at € $2.36 trillion with a 24-hour volume of $98.13 billion. Bitcoin’s dominance currently stands at 58.73%. Learn more about the crypto market ›