Markets expected softer inflation ahead of the CPI release as earlier data eased and financial conditions eased. The data met that vision. The headline CPI slowed to 2.4% and the core index to 2.5%, reducing pressure on real interest rates and increasing risk appetite for equities.
Bitcoin [BTC] did not reflect that follow-up, as the marginal buyer did not re-enter the US market.
The Coinbase Premium Index remained negative for months, often between -0.02% and -0.08%, meaning Coinbase was trading among offshore platforms.
Source: CryptoQuant
That difference suggests arbitrage selling on US strength, inconsistency in the flow of ETFs and a preference for derivatives over spot.
Premiums did not remain positive during the $100,000 to $120,000 advances as buyers chased the breakouts late and then the rallies faded as liquidity thinned. This kept upside momentum vulnerable and increased sensitivity to a downturn.
As BTC slid to $68,900, the near -0.06% premium showed US participants reacting to price movements rather than leading them.
This situation will only improve if premiums become persistently positive and ETF inflows occur sequentially, confirming spot LED absorption. Until then, Bitcoin remains in recovery validation rather than a confirmed uptrend.
The demand weakness in the spot market extends to ETF flows
In the current cycle, regulated spot Bitcoin ETFs have emerged as the primary transmission mechanism for institutional capital. However, their behavior in February 2026 shows clear hesitation rather than conviction.
The institutional participation reflected the same hesitation already visible in the American spot question. Spot ETF flows became inconsistent despite supportive macro signals. On February 13, net outflows reached $410 million, for a two-day total of almost $686 million.
Redemptions at major funds showed that investors were reducing rather than increasing their exposure.
The intended outcome was steady institutional accumulation following a relief in the CPI and stronger equity sentiment. Instead, allocations remained tactical as investors used rallies to rebalance risk.
At the same time, Exchange Netflow The dynamics reinforced the growing background of the sell side. Netflow spikes appeared repeatedly throughout the cycle, with several large positive spikes exceeding 100,000 BTC during major distribution periods.
Previous peaks even approached 175,000–190,000 BTC, marking periods of aggressive supply placement.
Source: CryptoQuant
Meanwhile, weakening stablecoin inflows reduced deployable purchasing power, amplifying demand vulnerability and confirming price recovery rather than expansion.
Aggressive selling creates upward momentum
Sell side aggression has continued to dominate order flow, amplifying the same demand fragility reflected in the Coinbase Premium Index. Net customer volume posted persistently negative figures, often exceeding -200 million and, in extreme cases, reaching almost -450 million.
This imbalance arose as whales, funds and leveraged traders fueled rallies while liquidity remained tight. Profit realization and hedging settle accelerated market sales. As a result, the price increases lacked sustainable spot sponsorship.
Source: CryptoQuant
Brief positive bursts above +100 million occurred during short squeezes and tactical dip buying. However, these inflows quickly subsided, showing that buyers were reacting to declines rather than forward recoveries.
As Bitcoin approached the $100,000 region, persistent negative averages indicated a strong distribution, reflecting the US premium discount.
Together, reactive buying dampened downside risk, but dominant sales execution and fragile spot demand limited upside momentum, leaving the market structure balanced but unconfirmed.
Final thoughts
- Continued premium discounts on Coinbase confirm weak US leadership in the spot market, with offshore flows and arbitrage activity driving price rather than domestic accumulation.
- ETF outflows, surging currency inflows, and dominant taker selling continue to absorb the rallies, leaving Bitcoin’s recovery as a validation, not an expansion.