For years, many Bitcoin investors have believed in the “four-year cycle,” a pattern of sharp rises followed by painful crashes.
But Cathie Wood, CEO of ARK Invest, says this pattern may no longer apply.
Speak on CNBC this week, Wood said she believes Bitcoin has already bottomed out.
While many retail investors remain nervous after the recent market swings, she says this downturn has been the mildest yet and is already over.
According to her, the market is now preparing for a strong and rapid rise.
She said:
“We didn’t have much of an upcycle by Bitcoin standards. So we think we’re pretty well through the downcycle here.”
Current market status
Wood’s confidence comes at a tense time for the market.
Bitcoin [BTC] recently fell to around $77,777, down 11% in just one week and erasing gains from the spring 2025 rally.
For many traders, the drop from the October 2025 high of $124,700 back to the April 2025 level feels like something more serious than a normal pullback.
Wood, however, sees it differently.
She sees the $80,000 – $90,000 range as a key support zone, not a danger zone. And her believes this level will persist and points out that the current 30% decline is relatively mild.
Over the past four years, Bitcoin often fell 70% to 80%. In comparison, she argues, this cycle shows signs of a more mature market.
Mixed technical signals
Despite scary headlines, market data tells a more balanced story.
On the bearish side, momentum indicators like the MACD were showing weakness at the time of writing, reflecting Bitcoin’s steady decline over the past four months.
On the bullish side, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has fallen into oversold territory. In the past this has often led to turning points.
Source: trading view
At the same time, there is the dominance of Bitcoin stayed high at almost 60%, indicating that investors are moving money from altcoins into Bitcoin.
Historically, this combination has often preceded a strong upward move.
What awaits us?
While short-term price fluctuations have made many investors nervous, Wood remains focused on the long term, especially as she looks to 2030.
She believes that Bitcoin is gradually gaining competition from gold.
Since 2022, Bitcoin is up about 360%, compared to gold’s gain of about 170%.
So from ARK Invest’s perspective, the current volatility is just a small part of a much larger shift that is underway.
In conclusion, Wood believes that this built-in scarcity could bring Bitcoin’s total value to $16 trillion by 2030, almost eight times its current size.
Final thoughts
- The current pullback appears severe, but remains much smaller in historical context than previous Bitcoin declines.
- Institutional capital appears to be changing Bitcoin’s behavior, even if short-term volatility remains unavoidable.