- Bitcoin’s OI reached a record level of $ 74 billion, which reflects a huge bullish sentiment
- The Futures market is healthy and not overheated – a sign that bulls might have their way
On May 21, Bitcoin’s [BTC] Open Interest (OI) reached a record high of $ 74.25 billion, making the hope for a potential outbreak to a new cycle high. This soon came by, with BTC getting a new $ 111,381 in the charts.
Source: BTC/USD, TradingView
Since April, BTC’s OI has risen by more than $ 24 billion, which underlines massive capital inflow on the derivatives market – a strong bullish cue.
Source: Coinglass
In the same period, BTC has a collection of $ 76k to $ 110k Gerally, with more than $ 34,000.
Such a peak in speculative interest in the Futures market, however, also comes with leverage (gambling with the help of exchange loans) and liquidation risks. So what is the next step for the market?
$ 1.65 billion BTC Shorts in danger
Source: Coinglass
Less than 24 hours ago, Coinglass liquidation for the 7-day window revealed $ 1.65 billion livered shorts to $ 108.5k.
When BTC blasted Above this level they all went under water, which underlined liquidation risks to bet for a likely BTC top.
On the contrary, if there is now a reversal below $ 100k, that would destroy no less than $ 12.5 billion in livered bulls.
Interesting is that the futures market on the press was not overheated. According to the HeatMap financing speed, there was no market foam despite the fact that BTC hit a new ATH.
For the unknown, financing rates are a mechanism that is used on the derivatives market to link the underlying contract to the spot price of the active.
Source: Coinglass
They are periodic payments, about 8 hours, by traders to set their positions.
A positive financing percentage means bullish sentiment, in which leveraged bulls pay shorts to maintain their position. A negative reading means the opposite.
At the time of writing, the financing percentages for BTC were around 3% (green) and considered healthy.
On the contrary, the financing percentages reached 50-100% in the last November-December period (Orange). This reflected over-delivery and market foam that ended up in a withdrawal at the beginning of 2025.
Simply put, at the time of the press, BTC was a healthy market and could insist on a new ATH.
That said, based on the MVRV bands price modelBTC is now back in the upper band levels that are seen in the beginning and end 2024.
If the trend repeats, BTC can fluctuate between $ 98k $ 118k for the next two months.
Source: Glassnode