XRP’s recent price struggle is starting to look less like routine underperformance and more like capitulation, as long-term holders who bought above $2 last year are now realizing losses in the millions.
Facts from Glassnode shows that this cohort has realized losses of around $20 million to $110 million per day, while digital assets have fallen 55% to around $1.30 over the past six months.
This shift suggests that XRP’s current selling pressure is caused by investors limiting the risk of weakness rather than taking profits on strength.
As a result, the market is full of late buyers who are under pressure, even though earlier entrants from the sub-$1 accumulation phase still have room to reduce their positions.
That has led to XRP going through its longest losing streak since 2014 and giving the market a top-heavy structure that will make it difficult for any price bounces to sustain.
The selling pressure is coming from the wrong part of the market
What makes the latest period more important than a simple downturn is the source of the sales.
In previous cycles, XRP holders typically sold as prices rose and the gains became harder to ignore. This time the selling is picking up because the market is weakening.
Market observers have characterized the shift as “partitioning weakness,” a pattern that points to declining confidence in the token’s near-term direction.
This partly explains why the decline has become more difficult to stop. Recent buyers are now facing losses, while previous holders continue to make profits and can still reduce their exposure to rallies.
A market in that state tends to struggle on the way up, because each upturn gives one group the opportunity to cut losses and another group the opportunity to realize gains. The result is a more vulnerable situation than the price drop alone would suggest.
Santiment data reinforces that picture. According to the blockchain analytics firm, portfolios active on the XRP Ledger over the past year have seen an average decline of 41% in their positions, the weakest average to realized value for
This effectively shows how deeply the sell-off has affected recent positioning and why the market has struggled to build a sustainable recovery.
Meanwhile, the broader backdrop of the crypto market hasn’t helped the situation. XRP’s downturn has occurred during a broader period of risk for digital assets, with Bitcoin retreating from above $126,000 to around $66,000.
In that environment, traders have shown less willingness to chase assets without a clear short-term trigger, especially when holders’ behavior is already deteriorating.
There are still spot buyers present, but futures traders are not buying on the turn
Meanwhile, the XRP market is not uniformly bearish.
CryptoQuant facts showspot cumulative volume delta on Binance has increased to approximately $520.2 million, indicating that buyers are still entering the market.
At the same time, the perpetual cumulative volume delta remains negative at approximately $261 million, indicating that leveraged traders have not meaningfully changed their stance.
This shows that XRP is still attracting demand in the cash market, but the derivatives market is not yet confirming that interest with the kind of aggressive repositioning that often accompanies a stronger move.
That split helps explain why XRP can appear supported and yet remain weak. Spot demand can dampen prices and slow the pace of decline, but if futures traders continue to lean defensively, rallies tend not to follow through.
While the market can stabilize in that state, it often needs a new catalyst to break a more decisive trend.
The behavior of whales points in a similar direction. CryptoQuant declared that the daily inflow of whales into Binance has fallen to approximately 12.6 million XRP, while the cumulative 30-day flow has fallen to approximately 1.44 billion
Large holders therefore send less supply to exchanges, reducing a source of short-term selling pressure.
However, the lower inflow does not automatically lead to demand. They simply leave XRP behind in a market with less aggressive supply and still insufficient conviction.
That is why XRP still looks like an asset in suspension. The pressure from large holders has decreased. Real buyers remain active on the spot markets.
Still, the sign remains in defensive leverage and in a broader market that has not yet fully returned to risk.
Ripple continues to grow, but the token is still priced as a stressed asset
The market’s hesitation is notable because Ripple’s broader operating background has improved.
The Brad Garlinghouse-led company’s multi-year battle with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) ended in a settlement after a series of favorable rulings, an outcome that helped fuel renewed accumulation and gave XRP its strongest run in years.
At the same time, Ripple has also pursued numerous acquisitions and licenses to expand its product reach and global footprint.
XRP proponents argue that these developments should ultimately matter more to the price.
Asheesh Birla, CEO of XRP treasury company Evernorth, said Institutional momentum around XRP is building at a pace not seen 18 months ago and the financial stack around the asset has been described as still being built.
He pointed to regulatory progress and growing real-world blockchain activity as evidence that the structural context is improving.
However, the market is not yet rewarding XRP as if that revaluation has arrived. Data from SoSoValue show that exchange-traded XRP funds recorded their first monthly net outflows of more than $31 million in March.
This breaks a stretch that had fueled $1.2 billion inflows, making them one of the strongest early crypto product launches outside of Bitcoin.
These outflows don’t negate Ripple’s longer-term progress, but they do show that investors remain cautious about placing a near-term premium on the token.
That leaves XRP caught between two realities. Ripple’s legal clarity, capital raising and institutional pressure provide a more constructive backdrop in the longer term.
In the short term, however, XRP is still trading as a crowded and damaged position, under pressure from holders selling into weakness, a large cohort of underwater buyers, and a derivatives market that has yet to confirm a turnaround.