Venture capital firm a16z, crypto research partner and associate professor in the Department of Computer Science at Georgetown University, Justin Thaler, has urged the cryptocurrency industry to resist panic over quantum computing threats.
The research partner argues that the timeline for cryptographically relevant quantum computers remains distant and that premature migration to post-quantum cryptography could pose more immediate risks than the theoretical danger itself.
Is blockchain currently facing a quantum threat?
In one detailed blog post which was also shared on X, Thaler challenged what he described as often exaggerated predictions about the capabilities of quantum computers.
He defined a cryptographically relevant quantum computer as a fault-tolerant machine capable of breaking the elliptic curve secp256k1 used in Bitcoin and Ethereum, or RSA-2048 encryption, in about a month.
Thaler wrote: “We are nowhere near a cryptographically relevant quantum computer on any reasonable reading of public milestones and resource estimates.”
Based on publicly available milestones, Thaler deemed such a breakthrough in the 2020s highly unlikely, pointing to the U.S. government’s 2035 goal for widespread adoption of post-quantum cryptography in federal systems as a more reasonable planning horizon.
However, he stated that “it is not a prediction that a cryptographically relevant quantum computer will exist by then.”
The a16z position distinguishes between different categories of cryptographic systems and their respective vulnerabilities.
While Thaler acknowledged that post-quantum encryption will require immediate deployment due to harvest-now-decrypt-later (HNDL) attacks already underway, he stated that digital signatures used in Bitcoin and Ethereum face no such risk because blockchain data is inherently public.
Zero-knowledge proofs generated before quantum computers arrive would also remain reliable, he said.
What are blockchain stakeholders doing about the quantum threat?
As Thaler makes his comments on what stakeholders should prioritize, players in the blockchain space have been taking steps to prepare for the post-quantum phase, with the Ethereum Foundation announcing a newly formed post-quantum team.
Coin base has also established an independent quantum computing and blockchain advisory board. The board consists of industry experts and researchers, including Justin Drake of the Ethereum Foundation.
The board is tasked with assessing the implications of quantum computing for the blockchain ecosystem and providing clear, independent guidance to the broader community.
Franklin Bi, general partner at Pantera Capital, responded to the announcement from the Ethereum Foundation’s PQ team by stating that blockchain systems may be better prepared to adopt and adapt to the post-quantum phase compared to traditional financial institutions on Wall Street.
He wrote“People overestimate how quickly Wall Street will adapt to post-quantum cryptography. Like any systemic software upgrade, it will be slow and chaotic, with some points of failure for years. Traditional systems are only as strong as their weakest links.”
While making his case for blockchains, he stated, “People also underestimate the unique ability of blockchains to implement a system-wide software upgrade on a global scale,” adding that if executed successfully and in a timely manner, blockchain networks could evolve into post-quantum “safe havens” for data and assets.
What does Thaler recommend?
Thaler left some recommendations saying that all stakeholders, companies, governments and policymakers should “take the quantum threat seriously,” but added that they should not “act on the assumption that a cryptographically relevant quantum computer will arrive before 2030.”
He stated that stakeholders should deploy hybrid encryption immediately, especially in places where long-term confidentiality is important and costs are bearable. Thaler also wrote that “Blockchains don’t need to rush with post-quantum signatures, but start planning now.”
For privacy chains that encrypt or hide transaction data, Thaler says they should prioritize a transition sooner if performance is bearable.
Another point he reiterated is that in the short term, stakeholders should prioritize the security of deployment rather than mitigating quantum threats. He called for more funding for quantum computing development while trying to get people to view new information as progress reports to critically evaluate, not as spurs to abrupt action for now.
Thaler acknowledged that there will be innovations and developments that can shorten the timelines, but also said there could also be bottlenecks that could push the timeline forward.