Bitcoin’s recent price movement feels like a serious test of the $70,000 level. After a brief rise near $74,000, the price quickly fell to the high $60,000s.
At the time of writing, the price had recovered slightly and was trading around $70,654 – up about 3% in 24 hours. This suggested that buyers may be trying to turn $70,000 into a strong support level, rather than letting it break again.
However, there is a bigger story than Bitcoin’s ups and downs. As BTC moves sideways, attention may slowly shift to altcoins. Simply put, the focus is no longer just on whether Bitcoin [BTC] will recover, what matters is whether stability around $70,000 could trigger the next wave of growth in altcoins.
Analysts keep their fingers crossed for altcoin season
For example, an X account noted,
Altcoins will experience the biggest breakout in the coming week.
Echoing similar sentiments, another analyst added:
While signs point to a possible altcoin season, the current volatility is mainly driven by global tensions, rather than crypto issues. Like Zach Humphries notedthe drop below $70,000 reflected market fear due to geopolitical uncertainty.
Interestingly, Bitcoin has still outperformed gold, silver and stocks – a sign that it is seen as a hedge. Although analysts consider the $65,000-$70,000 range to be a value zone, they are therefore cautious and waiting for better entry points.
As Humphries added:
I think we’re still in the middle of this bear market.
On the contrary, analysts who favor altcoins believe that this cycle is very similar to what happened in 2021.
Based on previous market trendsit may still be early in the accumulation phase – only about 123 days later. This phase usually lasts about 240 days.
This means that the market may still be in the build-up phase before a stronger upward move begins. If history repeats itself, we may soon transition from sideways movement to steady growth, with major coins starting to break out.
Are on-chain metrics in favor?
Well, there is a contradiction that traders should keep a close eye on.
Think about this: the Altcoin Season Index recorded 49, which is very close to a signal of an altcoin rally.
At the same time, however, Bitcoin’s dominance has remained highabout 60%.
Simply put, this means people are talking about altcoins and expecting them to rise. However, most of the money is still in Bitcoin as investors see it as the safer option.
In order for a real altcoin season to start, this needs to change. Until that happens, the market will remain stuck in a waiting phase.
Moreover, through major networks such as Ethereum [ETH]Solana [SOL]and Dogecoin [DOGE]activity levels have remained flat or declined. Ethereum saw a sudden increase in active users around March 19, but that didn’t last long. This suggested that it might have been caused by short-term events.
Solana activity has also been slowly declining, with Dogecoin also seeing less interest from retail investors.
Overall, this implied that the market’s excitement phase was not supported by strong data. Not yet.
Additional bottlenecks in the coming altseason
Another problem is where the money flows. Although people are talking about an altcoin season, the majority of trading still takes place on a few major exchanges.
This means that liquidity is concentrated in a few places, rather than spread across the ecosystem.
A clear sign of this is the sharp decline in trading activity. Altcoin volume dropped to around $26.5 billion, compared to over $100 billion just a few days ago.
That’s a huge drop, showing that even though people are still positive online, most of the money is not actively moving. Simply put, the market has potential, but lacks a strong trigger to move higher.
Final summary
- Bitcoin at $70,000 is showing strength but is still in critical testing and not in a confirmed breakout.
- The signals for Altcoin season are increasing, but the real capital rotation has not yet started.