The Bitcoin price is approaching a decisive momentsaid the head of a major crypto analytics firm. A clearly defined price threshold has been established and could fall below that accelerate the current recession. The warning focuses on how both market structure and investor behavior could change if this level fails, raising concerns about a deeper and more aggressive bear phase.
Crypto CEO Marks a Critical Bitcoin Price Level
Joao Wedson, founder of the crypto analysis platform called ‘Alphractal’, has done just that issued a warning about a critical price level that could shape the next phase of the Bitcoin market. According to Wedson, $60,490 represents the realized price of Binance’s Bitcoin reserveessentially the average cost basis of all the exchange’s BTC holdings.
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As long as Bitcoin trades above this level, Binance’s reserve will remain in profits. However, a continued decline below $60,490 would push the largest Bitcoin reserve on the exchange into an unrealized loss. In practical terms, this shift would mean that most of the BTC held on Binance was acquired at higher prices than the current market value.
That’s why Wedson sees the level as more than just technical support. Realized price figures coupled with large reserves often act as structural market boundaries. When the price stays above, it indicates that the big investors continue to make comfortable profits and have little pressure to distribute their coins. That dynamic can help stabilize the market during periods of volatility.
But the structure changes when that threshold breaks. Wedson noted one a similar scenario in the 2022 bear marketwhen Bitcoin remained below Binance’s realized reserve price for months. During that time, major investors faced unrealized losses, which continued to put downward pressure on the market. This is important because profit holders are less likely to sell, but once losses occur, selling pressure may increase because they try to limit further disadvantages.
Since Binance controls the largest Bitcoin reserve among exchanges, the $60,490 level has broader market implications. If Bitcoin loses this zone decisivelyit would remove an important profitability cushion for one of the market’s largest holders. According to Wedson, that kind of structural shift is exactly the kind of development that is tends to deepen bear markets.
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How market psychology could strengthen the downtrend
The implications extend beyond institutional positioning to general market sentiment. A decisive break below the identified level could weaken trust among participants, reinforce negative expectations. As sentiment changes, more investors may adopt defensive strategies, adding to additional selling pressure.
This interaction between price movements and psychology creates a feedback loop. Declines can trigger fearwhich in turn leads to further declines. Wedson’s warning highlights how this cycle could intensify if the key level fails. However, he believes that if Bitcoin continues to rise above it, the market can maintain some degree of stability. If it is lower, the described conditions point in the direction of a deepening bear market.
Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com