Renowned crypto analyst Rekt Capital recently did this marked the crucial nature of the upcoming monthly candle close of the Bitcoin price. In a statement via
He explained that “the next monthly candle closure is just around the corner. Bitcoin must close above $27,091 monthly to call it a fake analysis. Otherwise the fault is technically confirmed.”
To give this statement some historical context, the previous month – August – saw a major development for the flagship cryptocurrency. BTC recorded a bearish monthly candle close, ending below around $27,150. This data point, according to Rekt Capital, effectively confirmed that it was lost support.
Reflecting on this development at the time, the analyst had indicated that it is possible that BTC could rise to $27,150 in September, “maybe even upside. But that would likely be a relief rally to confirm $27,150 as new resistance before it settles into the ~$23,000 region. $23,000 is the next major monthly support now that ~$27,150 has been lost.”
Does Bitcoin Follow Historical Patterns?
Rekt Capital’s observations about Bitcoin are not isolated, but are deeply rooted in Bitcoin’s historical price and cycle behavior. Drawing parallels to previous patterns, he had previously shed light on Bitcoin’s trends about 200 days before a halving.
“At this same point in the cycle (~200 days before the halving): In 2015, Bitcoin recovered from -24% within a reaccumulation range, but the price consolidated for months during the halving. In 2019, Bitcoin recovered from -37% as part of a downtrend that lasted for months until the halving.”
These historical retracements at a similar time have given rise to two essential insights, as stated by Rekt Capital. First, an immediate retracement has occurred at the same point in the cycle. Second, a repeat bounce back of between -24% to -37% in 2023 would cause Bitcoin to retest its macro level, potentially pushing the price below the $20,000 threshold.
The analyst didn’t stop there. Highlighting the ideal accumulation phases for investors, he noted: “The best time to accumulate Bitcoin was late 2022, near the bottom of the bear market. The next best time to accumulate Bitcoin is during a deeper retracement in the pre-halving period.”
Shifting the focus to possible future outcomes, Rekt Capital made an intriguing speculation about the potential of BTC’s price movement after the halving: “If ~$31,000 was the high for 2023. Then the next time we see these prices will be months away after the halving. The only difference between now and then? In this pre-halving period, BTC could still bounce back from here. But after the halving, BTC would be much higher than current prices.”
In summary, the upcoming monthly candle close for Bitcoin could have profound implications for the asset’s trajectory in the short to medium term. All eyes will now be on whether BTC manages to close above or below the critical $27,150 mark – an indicator that could either confirm a technical glitch or gain the upper hand on a historically atypical price rally.
At the time of writing, BTC was at $26,687.
Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from TradingView.com