At the time of publication, Bitcoin was trading at $78,127.14, giving traders and investors renewed optimism that the cryptocurrency would cross the $80,000 mark.
Although BTC saw a lot of volatility in April, a zoom out of the monthly price chart showed that it has risen more than 17% over the past month.
However, despite such price momentum, BloFin Research believes that
Bitcoin’s current cycle is dramatically underperforming all previous ones.
This analysis was based on the April 2024 halving. Compared to previous cycles that took place in 2012, 2016, and 2020, the 2024 BTC cycle had fewer parabolic rallies and smaller price appreciation.
Bitcoin Volatility Index
The 30-day realized volatility, which measures the actual daily movement of Bitcoin [BTC] within the past 30 days confirmed the sentiment. In fact, the benchmark in 2020 was 9.64%, indicating sharp daily swings toward $69,000 during the massive bull market.
In 2024 it was calmer at 3.11%. And under the current scenario, it stood at 1.58%, indicating extremely compressed momentum. This downturn may be due to the Spot Bitcoin ETF, which launched in January 2024, creating institutional demand.
In addition, the Fed’s interest rate dilemma, tensions in the Middle East, multiple regulatory reforms and the October 2025 crash also played a role.
On the other hand, such scenarios have also created room for an outbreak.
Mixed sense of community
Other analysts even call this the Bitcoin’s low point is there and the bullish price rally could be in motion soon.
THIS SIGNAL HAS BOTTOM EVERY BITCOIN IN HISTORY.
As expected, however, Bitcoin critic Peter Schiff forever thinks differently, as he noted:
Are the statistics in the chain in favor of a bull run?
For that part, things are a little different with the metric font.
The Bitcoin Open Interest (OI)-Weighted Funding Rate 4-hour chart suggested that short traders were paying long. This means that the majority of traders are bearish despite price recovery.
While the Bitcoin Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) chart at 1.0014 suggested that most BTC was sold at small profits. Simply put, there is still room for a bullish rally if demand continues.
Finally, the fear and greed index in the ‘neutral’ zone after months further indicates that a bullish move is possible for Bitcoin.
However, inherent demand conditions are still too fragile to confirm the onset of a full bull cycle, as AMBCrypto previously reported.
Final summary
- Bitcoin’s current underperformance compared to previous cycles can be attributed to the Fed rate change and geopolitical tensions.
- A negative funding rate and a SOPR greater than 1 suggest that opinions on Bitcoin are diametrically opposed.