Key Takeaways
What are the similarities with April?
The crypto sentiment over the past few weeks, the holders facing unrealized losses, and the price charts all look like March-April.
What are the chances of a new market bottom?
It seems 50-50. Compelling arguments can be made for both the bull and bear cases. It all depends on the macro conditions and sentiment of crypto investors in the next 3-6 months.
Has Bitcoin [BTC] entered a bear phase, or was the recent reset to just under $100,000 bull market?
The October 10 crash pushed market sentiment into strongly bearish territory, from which it has not recovered since.
As a result, a lot of social media engagement was bearish.
The sale of whales and the depletion of buyers were seen as reasons why bears have the upper hand. Still, AMBCrypto investigated why Bitcoin M2 decoupling does not mean the cycle top has been reached.
Memories of April and a new potential BTC market bottom
The Crypto Fear & Greed Index stood at 29 on November 10. A few days earlier, the price fell to a low of 20, a value of 20 last seen in mid-April.
Source: BTC/USDT on TradingView
At the beginning of 2025, Bitcoin was trading within a certain range. It lost this range in March and fell to $74.5k in April before rebounding higher.
BTC has also traded within a range in recent months that it lost in recent weeks.
Comparing sentiment and price action, if history were to repeat itself, we could have another month of bearish price action before a possible recovery.
Short-term holders magnify losses
The unrealized profit/loss margin showed that holders suffered losses, but the magnitude was not as large as what holders faced in March and April. BTC was also trading significantly below its realized price, which is currently $115.1k
If the above scenario plays out like April’s, it suggests that BTC’s downtrend at this point could go a lot lower than just $98.9,000.
There are similarities to the current sentiment, price action and unrealized shareholder losses in March and April, but similarities do not mean that the previous situation will be exactly repeated. Still, it’s something to keep an eye on.
The bull cycle still lacks the euphoric burst
The Power Law model showed that the current bull run has not seen an explosive rally that seemed to mark the end of the previous cycles. There has not yet been a so-called blow-off top, a phase of pure market euphoria.
Maybe this time it will be different and we won’t see such a phase.
Or perhaps the macro picture needs more time to align and let crypto fly.
At the moment, both possibilities seem likely, which helps explain the fear and uncertainty in the market.