Key Takeaways
What’s next for Bitcoin’s price trajectory?
Bitcoin could exit its pre-parabolic phase after three years, with a promising rally ahead.
Is there currently an accumulation trend?
Idle supply continues to rise as foreign exchange reserves decline, indicating continued accumulation.
Bitcoin [BTC] has been struggling to perform on the price charts lately and has been hovering around the $100,000 zone for weeks.
However, recent market dynamics suggest that this consolidation could end soon, with Bitcoin poised for a significant rally in the coming weeks.
Bitcoin in a pre-parabolic phase?
Market analyst TechDev noted A recent analysis shows that Bitcoin may be nearing the end of its pre-parabolic phase.
The pre-parabolic phase is a period when the asset builds momentum ahead of a major rally. According to chart data, Bitcoin has been in this phase since 2022. This indicator has historically predicted bull and bear markets with great accuracy.
Source:
The aforementioned chart also highlighted that the ‘business cycle signal’, which tracks the start of different market phases, has reached a level that could indicate the potential for a large price swing.
Although Bitcoin’s price had fallen below $100,000 at the time of writing, these findings hinted at an appearance of rising bullish sentiment in the market.
Foreign exchange reserves fall, idle Bitcoin supply rises
But that’s not all, as Bitcoin reserves on centralized exchanges (CEXs) have also fallen sharply. At the time of writing, the amount of Bitcoin available on exchanges had fallen to 2.38 million – an all-time low.
A sharp decline in foreign exchange reserves usually means that investors are moving their Bitcoin to private wallets for long-term investment, while the supply available for sale is reduced.
Source: CryptoQuant
Bitcoin’s one-year idle supply data also showed a pattern: every time the market goes parabolic, idle supply increases significantly.
In 2017 and 2021, idle supply increased during major rallies by 20% and 10%, respectively. Between 2024 and 2025, the supply of inactive Bitcoins increased by another 10%, while the same trend is still going up.
What this means is that more investors are holding on to their Bitcoin, a trend that could reduce supply and drive up the price.
What do long-term holders do?
Finally, market data showed that long-term owners have gradually divested some of their assets.
This trend was confirmed due to the high value of Coin Days Destroyed (CDD), which indicates that long-term holders are moving their coins – often a sign of selling.
Source: CryptoQuant
Chris Kuiper, vice president of research at Fidelity Digital Assets, recognized this in a recent post. He noted:
“October’s strong seasonal pattern did not hold, and as the calendar year draws to a close, long-term holders are making year-end tax and positional changes, taking profits where they can.”
However, this does not necessarily mean trouble for Bitcoin. Jeff Park, an investment advisor at Bitwise, does insist investors see volatility as an opportunity. According to the director
“Volatility is coming. Buy Bitcoin.”
Large price fluctuations are often influenced by macro and institutional factors. Maria Carola, CEO of StealthEx, told AMBCrypto:
“The crypto market’s recovery reflects traders’ positioning for a more normalized macro environment after several weeks of liquidity stress.”
Simply put, sentiment remains bullish for many investors – with a potential rally in sight.