Has the market really not bottomed out yet?
Looking at the post-halving cycles, this idea actually has some weight. Bitcoin in both 2016 and 2020 [BTC] tended to bottom out around 875 to 917 days after the halving. This timing matches quite closely with the large declines we’ve seen, about 73% in the 2018 cycle and about 64% in 2022.
If that pattern holds, it could indicate that we may still be early in the current cycle. From a technical perspective, we are only about 750 days into the 2024 halving cycle, which could mean the real bottom has not yet formed. So the real question is: are we still due for a deeper correction before the next big surge?
Looking at how the market is developing in May, the statement takes on some more weight.
In March and April, Bitcoin has already posted a total increase of almost 15%. But some traders think momentum could cool this month as BTC has rarely managed three consecutive strong monthly closes in recent bear-like phases. And based on the cycle behavior after the halving, Bitcoin could still be in that ‘intermediate zone’ despite the strong Q2 run thus far.
That said, if we look back at previous halving cycles, there is an important difference.
In contrast to the 1300%+ rally of the 2017 cycle and the 60% move of the 2021 cycle, the 2025 leg actually closed around -6.3%. Normally, the post-halving phases tend to trigger strong, scarcity-driven upward forces, but this cycle has already shown some deviation from that pattern. That begs the bigger question: Will the 2026 cycle deviate from the typical bear market structure in 2018 and 2022?
Bitcoin is entering a supply-tight phase as the whales quietly accumulate
Zooming out, Bitcoin’s 2026 cycle is still down 7.5%, largely in line with typical post-halving behavior.
But if we zoom in, the on-chain data shows a different picture. Accumulation signals remain strong, with the size of the whale trade increasing, suggesting larger players are steadily absorbing supply during dips. Meanwhile, capitulation signals are fading as Bitcoin’s net realized gain/loss measure has turned positive again, indicating that market positioning is beginning to stabilize beneath the surface.
Institutional flows in particular further reinforce this trend. Despite two days of outflows, US spot Bitcoin ETFs have still recorded six consecutive weeks of net inflows, marking the longest streak since August 2025. Additionally, approximately 78.3% of BTC supply is now in the hands of long-term holders, compared to 74.1% earlier in the cycle. That 4.2 percentage point shift equates to 830,000 BTC moving from short-term traders to long-term portfolios.
Taken together, the on-chain data suggests that supply is quietly building beneath the surface.
From a technical point of view, the timing looks interesting. Bitcoin is moving sideways around $80,000, a structure that favors the bulls as supply is absorbed during consolidation. If this trend continues, the developing supply shock could be a bear trapwhich may result in a abandonment of previous patterns after the halving.
This in turn could turn May’s bearish positioning on its head, opening the door for a bullish shift and increasing the likelihood that the market has already bottomed.
Final summary
- Historical trends after the halving suggest that Bitcoin may not have reached its full bottom yet.
- The accumulation of whales and strong ETF inflows indicate that tight supply could turn bearish sentiment into bullish movement.