Bitcoin [BTC] has moved higher over the past two weeks. Although it was trading within a longer-term downtrend, it had made a bullish market structure shift within a four-hour window on February 25. This structural shift allowed Bitcoin to continue its steady rally.
Since hitting a local low of $63,000 on February 28, Bitcoin has risen 12% in three weeks. During this period, the S&P 500 is down about 3.5%. This show of relative strength has given rise to arguments that BTC acted as a hedge against macroeconomic uncertainty – the old digital gold argument.
The “safe haven” discourse has attracted retail FOMO, AMBCrypto reported. It remains to be seen whether the retail industry is right and the current rally has room to grow, or whether market participants should adopt a more pessimistic view.
Restoring stablecoin liquidity may not translate into demand
A crypto analyst noted that the 30-day moving average (DMA) of USDT and USDC inflows improved in February-March 2026. The 30DMA rose to $3.84 billion on February 10, but was down almost 30% to $2.74 billion by March 19.
A comparison of the 30DMA with the 365DMA showed that the current stablecoin inflows to exchanges clearly below the annual standard. According to the analyst, the return of the 30DMA of stablecoin inflows above the annual average generally signals a return to a Bitcoin recovery phase.
As things stand now, there was a $1.3 billion gap between the moving averages.
Analyst Donkerfost argued that inflation risks and geopolitical concerns made it an adverse scenario for risky assets like Bitcoin. Rising yields on US government bonds made them attractive because of their low-risk returns.
In these circumstances, BTC is a riskier bet, with potentially fewer capital flows. This meant it could take a while longer to escape the crypto bear market, despite recent gains.
The long-term BTC swing structure remains bearish. A rally to $83,000-$89,000 is possible in the coming weeks. Traders and investors should be prepared to view this move as a retracement within a broader bearish trend, and not the start of a recovery.
Final summary
- Bitcoin saw a recovery in stablecoin liquidity, but this has not translated into aggressive demand for the leading crypto.
- The broader market fears, such as inflation risks, mean that the road to recovery will not be easy for BTC.