Halfway through the second quarter, the market is already pricing in targets for the end of the quarter.
From a technical point of view, Bitcoin [BTC] A 10% year-to-date increase could just be the start of a situation similar to 2025, where the second quarter ended with a 30% gain. If we get a repeat of that structure, BTC could still be on track to finish the second quarter somewhere between $85,000 and $90,000. In that case, the $65,000 to $70,000 zone would likely stand out as a local bottom for this cycle.
The key question now is whether signals in the chain support this range as a potential local bottom. On a macro level, BTC started the week by breaking below the $75,000 level as uncertainty around the Strait of Hormuz increases again, adding pressure to the bottom is in story. That pressure is now also starting to become visible in the on-chain statistics.
As the chart shows, BTC has not yet seen a complete capitulation.
From a long-term perspective, only 28.89% are currently experiencing unrealized losses, a situation that has historically led to panic once that figure approaches 40-45%, marking the start of an accumulation phase. Technically, this suggests that BTC still has room for further downside before a bottom is reached. And with the macro FUD still in place, that structure hasn’t really been debunked yet.
Plus, derivatives are starting to look a bit tense. Coinglass data shows that BTC long positions outnumber short positions by about 3:2, meaning the market is still optimistically leaning on leverage. Taken together, macro FUD, weak technicals and crowded long positions indicate that the market is still vulnerable. With the LTHs still flooded during parts of the move, capitulation risk is not yet off the table. That keeps pressure on the $65,000 to $70,000 range.
Naturally, the question arises: is the $85,000 – $90,000 target for Bitcoin in Q2 too ambitious?
Bitcoin is facing bearish pressure, but the strength remains
Depending on positioning, liquidity in a risky market can work both ways.
From a technical perspective, stablecoin market cap just hit a new high of $320 billion, adding about $5 billion in a week. In a risk-off setting, this often means that capital is parked on the sidelines as ‘dry powder’.
But with Bitcoin up 4.35% over the same period, it appears liquidity is returning to BTC rather than staying parked. Meanwhile, stablecoin dominance has fallen by more than 1%, pushing four consecutive red candles and retreating to early March levels, while BTC dominance has risen by more than 1% over the same period.
According to AMBCrypto, this growing gap between stablecoin dominance and BTC dominance is worth watching. Historically, this type of setup signals capital turning away from defensive positioning and back into “risk,” a structure that often supports continued upside momentum for Bitcoin.
In this context rising long leverage of BTC may in fact reflect strategic positioning.
The logic is simple: despite bearish pressure across multiple metrics, BTC dominance is increasing, while stablecoin dominance is decreasing. At the same time, the overall liquidity of stablecoins continues to increase, indicating that capital is already being converted back into Bitcoin.
If this trend continues, BTC could move through the FUD, fuel FOMO and help establish a stronger bottom, making it an important trend to watch for Bitcoin’s second-quarter prospects.
Final summary
- Macro FUD, weak technicals and crowded long positions keep Bitcoin vulnerable, putting pressure on the $65,000 to $70,000 range.
- Falling stablecoin dominance alongside rising BTC dominance could mean early upside momentum for Bitcoin’s second-quarter prospects.