This article is available in Spanish.
Bitcoin price volatility is likely to rise in both directions following the recent approval of options for spot Bitcoin ETFs, according to Jeff Park, head of Alpha Strategies at Bitwise Investments. In one interview along with Anthony Pompliano, Park explained how these newly available options differ from existing crypto derivatives and why they could have a significant impact on Bitcoin market dynamics.
Why Bitcoin ETF Options Are a Gamechanger
Park laid out a lengthy thesis in the interview, noting: “Volatility is not just a static measure of past performance; it reflects the distribution of potential outcomes and the severity of those outcomes.” He emphasized that the introduction of Bitcoin ETF options will add new dimensions to the way traders interact with Bitcoin, potentially amplifying both price increases and decreases. This volatility, he argued, arises from the unique characteristics of options as financial instruments.
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While Bitcoin options are not entirely new – offshore platforms such as Deribit and LedgerX already offer similar instruments – ETF options introduce a regulated market overseen by US authorities such as the CFTC and SEC. This makes a big difference, according to Park, because “removing counterparty risk is something that crypto offshore has not yet fully solved.” He noted that the Options Clearing Corporation (OCC) clearing mechanisms provide additional certainty to these trades, which institutional investors have long demanded.
More importantly, Park highlighted the benefit of cross-collateralization, which is not available on existing platforms that focus solely on crypto. “Cross-collateralization allows traders to use uncorrelated assets, such as gold ETFs, as collateral in Bitcoin transactions,” he explained. This flexibility increases liquidity and efficiency in the market. “You can’t do this on Deribit or any other purely crypto-focused platform,” Park emphasized, calling it a “huge unlocker” for the Bitcoin derivatives market.
Park expects that the introduction of these options will increase Bitcoin’s price fluctuations. “For any well-functioning and liquid market, you need organic buyers and sellers to create natural supply and demand,” he explains. However, the real impact comes from the way dealers hedge their positions, especially when they are ‘short gamma’, a situation where their hedging activities can intensify price movements.
In practical terms, Park said, “Short dealers must buy more Bitcoin when prices rise and sell more when prices fall, increasing volatility.” This dynamic is crucial to understanding how ETF options can drive Bitcoin’s price to its limits in either direction. He also pointed out that historically, most Bitcoin options activity has been driven by speculation, rather than risk management strategies like covered calls, which tend to reduce volatility.
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One of Park’s key points was the dramatic growth potential for Bitcoin’s derivatives market. In traditional markets such as shares, the derivatives market is often ten times larger than the underlying spot market. In contrast, Bitcoin’s overt interest in derivatives currently represents just 3% of its spot market value, according to Park’s figures. “The introduction of ETF options could lead to a 300x increase in the size of the Bitcoin derivatives market,” Park predicted.
This growth would provide substantial new liquidity, but would also likely increase volatility, due to the increased volume of speculative transactions and the structural leverage introduced by options. “That’s an astronomical number that will require new flows and liquidity into this market, which will likely create more volatility,” Park said.
“In the global economy, derivatives markets are much larger than spot markets,” he added, pointing out that derivatives in traditional asset classes such as equities and commodities play a crucial role in risk management and speculation. “Bitco is moving towards a similar structure, and that is where we will see the most significant price movements and liquidity,” Park concluded.
At the time of writing, BTC was trading at $62,334.
Featured image from YouTube, chart from TradingView.com
