Bitcoin [BTC] dropped to a low of $65.5K on Friday, March 27. This was the same low it rallied from earlier this month to reach $76,000. Friday’s losses forced nearly $400 million in long-term liquidations in the crypto market, and $172 million for Bitcoin.
In a post on Together they pointed to a long squeeze. In fact, last week’s sell-off and the recent long squeeze have effectively flushed most long positions out of the market.
The 30-day liquidation chart showed that there was another cluster of long, highly leveraged levels up to the $64K mark that could be hunted next.
Analysis of on-chain metrics showed that accumulation was still fighting distribution pressures. The market seemed to be in a tense transition situation, with full distribution not yet underway.
In other words, it could be another decision time for Bitcoin.
Bitcoin’s internal tug-of-war has not yet been resolved
Crypto analyst Axel Adler Jr noted that the 30-day net position change for long-term holders has been positive since January 2026. LTH supply stood at 14.2 million BTC at the time of writing and continued to accumulate despite the recent correction.
A transition to sales was not yet underway. The last time this cohort moved to total sales was in July 2025, with prices around the $120,000 level.
At the same time, the LTH Spend Output Profit Ratio fell below 1 at the end of February. This meant that long-term holders on average realized a loss when selling. The analyst pointed out that the ‘loss zone’ was active on the chart, which historically occurred during extended periods of stress.
One difference between the previous tense market conditions and this one was that the price of BTC was significantly higher than in previous LTH losing phases. This meant that the sales were not indicative of a capitulation of a broad LTH cohort, but of localized stress among those who bought around the 2025 peak.
The two measures showed a difference: long-term holders continued to accumulate, but some LTHs sold at a loss.
If the 30-day net position change becomes negative, this would indicate a shift to a full distribution.
It remains to be seen whether the loss-making sellers step up as prices fall, or whether their capitulation ends. If the LTH SOPR can climb back above 1, it would indicate that the current forced selling may be easing.
Final summary
- Bitcoin market sentiment seemed extremely pessimistic as prices re-hit local lows of $65.6K.
- The long-term behavior of holders has not yet shown a transition to a full distribution regime.