Bitcoin continued its upward momentum above $71,000 on Tuesday as investors continued to weigh the market impact of President Donald Trump’s decision to pause planned US attacks on Iran’s power and energy infrastructure for five days.
Data from CryptoSlate showed the top cryptocurrency trading around $71,185 at the time of writing, rising 4% on the session.
The price broke through a level that traders have been watching as a test of whether institutional demand can continue to absorb pressure from war risks, rising energy prices and a Federal Reserve that has signaled a slower path to looser monetary policy.
The latest twist in the conflict first hit crude oil and then spread to currencies, stocks and digital assets.
Brent crude fell more than 13% after Trump announced the pause, briefly falling to $96 a barrel before rebounding above $102 as traders reevaluated the prospect of broader disruption and Iran pushed back on the idea of direct talks.
However, Bitcoin’s response turned heads as the digital asset avoided a deeper decline during a week when oil, war and interest rate expectations were all moving at once.
The price action reinforced the market view that BTC has become more closely tied to broader liquidity conditions and institutional positioning than during previous cycles dominated by retail flows.
Oil remains the most important market channel
The central link between the conflict and global markets runs through the Strait of Hormuz.
The International Energy Agency say approximately 25% of global seaborne oil trade and almost 20% of global liquefied natural gas trade passed through Hormuz in 2025. The US Energy Information Administration has also identified the route as one of the world’s major energy chokepoints, with nearly a fifth of the world’s oil supply passing through it.
That causes traders to view any shift in the US-Iran conflict primarily as an oil market event. A sustained rise in oil prices could raise inflation expectations, slow central bank easing and tighten broader financial conditions.
For Bitcoin, that order has become increasingly important as exchange-traded products, large allocators and macro funds account for a larger share of trading activity.
The Fed reinforced that climate on March 18, when it left its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 3.5% to 3.75%. Policymakers forecast that headline and core personal consumption expenditure inflation would reach 2.7% in 2026, and the median estimate for the federal funds rate at the end of 2026 remained at 3.4%.
These projections showed that officials still expect inflation to cool gradually, with little room for a rapid easing cycle if energy prices continue to weigh on the outlook.
For Bitcoin, this means that geopolitical stress is only part of the equation. A rally can more easily continue as crude oil retreats, inflation expectations decline and expectations of rate cuts strengthen. When oil prices remain high, crypto faces a tighter macro environment even if military headlines don’t worsen.
That dynamic helps explain the market’s reaction over the past several sessions. The pause in planned attacks on Iran’s energy infrastructure brought relief to global markets, but crude’s rebound above $100 a barrel showed how quickly sentiment can change as traders refocus on Hormuz and the risk of disruption to supply flows.
Fund flows indicate demand, while the Fed is still driving short-term fluctuations
Investment product data shows that capital has continued to flow into Bitcoin, even as the macroeconomic backdrop has become less supportive.
Over the past two weeks, asset management firm CoinShares reported inflows of more than $1.2 billion into digital asset investment products, with Bitcoin accounting for about $900 million of that total.
The company too said Assets under management in digital asset products had increased by almost 10% since the start of the Iran crisis to over $140 billion.
The details of those reports provided a clearer picture of what was causing the price swings. Last week, CoinShares said digital asset products brought in $635 million in the first two days of the week, but then declined to $405 million in outflows after the March 18 Fed decision.
This series suggests that Bitcoin has held up under geopolitical tensions while remaining highly sensitive to the path of monetary policy. Investors continued to increase their exposure, but also reacted quickly when the Fed signaled that rates might remain restrictive for longer.
The pattern is consistent with a broader market view that Bitcoin entered the latest period of stress from a cleaner starting point than earlier in the quarter.
CoinShares argued in its Iran conflict analysis that whale distribution was already high, valuations had already compressed and leverage had already moved closer to long-term norms before the latest military escalation.
Because much of that reset had already taken place, the next shock was faced by a market with less excessive positioning.
Data on the chain and derivatives determine the next range
Market structure data shows improvement, although the breakout still depends on whether Bitcoin can stay above recent recovery levels.
Glass junction said Bitcoin has moved through a tight supply area between $59,000 and $72,000 and entered a thinner trading band between $72,000 and $82,000 where historical turnover is lighter.
The company said about 60% of circulating supply made a profit, below the 75% level seen in previous cycles in line with a more established early bull phase.
That puts Bitcoin in a zone where the market has recovered some of the previous panic damage, although it has not yet been shown that profit-taking can be consistently absorbed at higher prices. A stable position above $70,000 would strengthen the case for challenging the top end of that thinner range. A
However, a drop back to the old cluster of $59,000 to $72,000 would put the market back into heavier traffic, where supply has previously limited progress.
The positioning of options points to the same conclusion.
Deribit, owned by Coinbase said Downside hedging is concentrated between $61,000 and $64,000, while open interest has also built up at higher strikes, including $75,000 and $125,000. In a recent note, the exchange said a break above $75,000 could trigger hedging flows from dealers that would add momentum to the uptrend.
That gives traders a relatively clear map. Protection is concentrated in the low $60,000 area.
The $75,000 level is the point at which upside positioning could begin to influence market mechanisms more powerfully. Between these points, Bitcoin remains within a range shaped by both macro pressures and stable product demand.
Citi added another benchmark earlier this month when it published a 12-month base target of $112,000 for Bitcoin, alongside a bull case target of $165,000 and a recession target of $58,000.
These figures provide broader context for the current position of the market. A recovery to $75,000 and then $82,000 would move the price path closer to the top of that outlook. Still, renewed pressure from oil and policy expectations would draw attention back to the lower scenarios.
Cross-asset flows show selective repositioning
Broader asset allocation data suggests that investors are responding to the conflict with a mix of caution and selective risk-taking, rather than a simple flight to traditional havens.
Reuters, citing data from BofA Global Research and EPFR, reported that investors put $62.2 billion into stocks, $10.2 billion into bonds, $1 billion into crypto and $23.5 billion into cash last week, while pulling $4.5 billion out of gold.
This mix indicates selective dip buying alongside a significant shift to cash. It also shows that Bitcoin has remained part of the investable risk complex, even during a period of military escalation and sharp energy moves. The sign has fueled continued inflows, albeit within a market still focused on oil, inflation and the Fed.
For Bitcoin, the next phase will likely depend heavily on the direction of crude oil.
A pullback in Brent, combined with continued inflows into exchange-traded and other investment products, would improve the case for a move through the $75,000 mark and into the $72,000 to $82,000 air gap identified by Glassnode.
However, a sustained rise in oil prices would keep inflationary pressures alive and maintain a tighter policy environment, conditions that could shift the focus back to $64,000 and then to $58,000.