Bitcoin [BTC] continues to give mixed directional signals even as bulls try to regain control. At the time of writing, BTC was approaching the $70,000 level after trading below that for about eleven days.
Despite this recovery effort, underlying demand conditions remain fragile. Both retail participants and long-term investors appear to be reducing exposure, raising questions about the sustainability of the current move.
The apparent demand points to structural weakness
Bitcoin Apparent Demand, a key metric used to assess whether newly issued supply is being absorbed, suggests that April has started on a weak footing. The metric measures the difference between Bitcoin issuance and the volume of coins that remain inactive for more than a year.
Recent data shows that apparent demand has fallen to a negative 86,000 BTC, equivalent to approximately $5.95 billion at the time of writing. This indicates that the newly supplied Bitcoin is not being sufficiently absorbed, which is a result of weak market demand rather than strength.
There is currently a clear relationship between apparent demand and price action.
A persistent negative trend in demand usually corresponds to downward price pressure. Notably, this is the weakest reading in more than a month, reinforcing concerns about the underlying market structure.
Long-term holders shift to distribution
Long-term holdings contribute to this weakness. This cohort, historically associated with accumulation and low sales activity, now appears to be dispersing.
Data from CryptoQuant shows that the Binary Coin Days Destroyed (CDD) has reached 1. When this statistic prints 1, it indicates that older coins are being moved, an event often associated with selling activity by long-term holders.
If this behavior continues, it could further weigh on Bitcoin’s price prospects. Whales, on the other hand, take the opposite position. Major holders have increased their presence in the market as Bitcoin tries to recover.
Average order size data shows that whales, especially larger entities, have dominated trading activity on major exchanges in recent sessions. Their orders represent a significant portion of volume, making them a key driver of near-term momentum.
Given Bitcoin’s recent rebound, this activity suggests that whales have turned tactically bullish, at least in the past 48 hours.
Whale activity alone may not sustain the rally
However, it remains risky to rely on whale accumulation as a standalone signal. Whales’ behavior is often reactive and can change quickly due to market conditions.
AMBCrypto previously reported that Bitcoin investors holding between 100 and 10,000 BTC posted a combined loss of $30.9 billion in the first quarter, with whales responsible for an average daily loss of $337 million. This context underlines that large farms are not infallible, and that periods of accumulation do not always translate into sustained upward trends.
With long-term holders dividing and apparent demand reflecting weak supply absorption, the current whale-driven momentum may lack the fundamental support needed for a sustained rally.
Final summary
- Apparent demand for Bitcoin has fallen to negative 86,000 BTC, worth approximately $5.95 billion, indicating weak supply absorption.
- Long-term holders distribute as the whales accumulate, creating a difference in market behavior.