Bitcoin’s price structure is starting to look less like a clean recovery to $80,000 more of a battleground between $76,000 and $78,000, true every rally is tested, and every dip is monitored.
Now, a new technical view from a crypto analyst known as Guru adds an interesting angle to that uncertainty, outlining a path where Bitcoin could first lure late buyers before plunging into a 50% decline before the end of the year.
Next Bitcoin Movement
Bitcoin’s recent price action in April has created bullish momentum creep in slowlyand many analysts are too we are now looking at bullish price targets at the end of the year. However, in a post shared on social media platform constructed a revised multi-phase roadmap for Bitcoin that culminates in a crash to $30,000 by the end of the year, a drop of as much as 61% from current levels.
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The chart accompanying the post is a weekly timeframe chart that projects the full arc of the move: a compression zone, a rally, and then a terminal decline that would take Bitcoin to the price level last seen in late 2023.
According to the weekly chart, Bitcoin is currently moving into a high time frame redistribution phase. Guru’s original prediction expected an easier two-act series, with a flush to $55,000 followed by an immediate rally to $80,000. That scenario is now outdated, although the analyst is clear that the broader conclusion has not changed.
The updated plan first introduces a higher timeframe (HTF) consolidation and rebalancing phase, which is likely to trap traders on both sides. The prediction based on this updated plan is that Bitcoin will soon reverse and find a local bottom in the $62,000-$65,000 zone before a price drop. increase to $85,000. It is that rally, Guru argues, that poses the real danger. “The 85k pump will be the ultimate liquidity trap,” the analyst wrote.
A year-end drop to $30,000
The most interesting part of the prediction is what is expected to happen once Bitcoin undergoes the expected rally to $85,000. Once the above liquidity has been utilized and the market has exhausted the buying pressure, the analyst will expect a decline, targeting a broad range between $50,000 at the high end and $30,000 at the low end before the end of the year.
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Despite the severity of the prediction, Guru has been explicit about what would debunk it. A weekly close above $98,000 would invalidate the entire bearish scenario.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $77,000, meaning a drop to $50,000 would mean a drop of around 35%, while a deeper drop to $30,000 would translate into a loss of around 61% from current levels. On the other hand, a move to the analyst level of $98,000 would require a rally of around 27%.
Featured image from Adobe Stock, chart from Tradingview.com