Ethereum currently trading above $2,100 at the start of the new month, but one analyst believes the asset’s next big price move is based on one price level: a level that, if broken, would invalidate years macro analysis and cause a price drop of up to $900.
The count that lasted a year
According to to an analyst Known as The Penguin, Ethereum’s current price behavior fits into a broader Elliott Wave structure that has been developing for years. The analysis defines Ethereum’s entire price history since 2016 as an evolving macro sequence: a completed Cycle Wave 1 that peaked, followed by an extended Wave 2 correction that played out as a flat. According to the analyst, this structure is time-consuming, choppy and designed to frustrate.
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Since Ethereum’s 2021 peak, Ethereum price has moved largely sideways and downward, while repeatedly teasing recoveries that faded. The most notable example of this recovery was in August 2025, when Ethereum soared to new all-time highs. However, this ultimately led to a reversal that dropped Ethereum back below $2,000.
The chart details the flat trading series, mapping the W, X, A and B legs that form the larger Wave 2 structure. The current price action is in the latter part of the B structure, and the next outlook is an upward move to C from here.
The $1,382 line that changes everything
As shown in the chart above, Ethereum price has spent the period since the 2021 peak trade under a well-defined horizontal resistance zone between $4,500 and $4,900, with multiple rallies unable to break this ceiling. In contrast, the lows were less uniform, with the lows forming a more irregular pattern rather than a clean horizontal base.
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However, one level stands out in this structure, namely the low of $1,382 recorded in April 2025. Based on the context of this analysis, this point is labeled Wave This is the important price level that will determine whether the price structure continues to fall below the four-digit mark.
As long as Ethereum remains above, the Wave 2 scenario will hold and Ethereum price could still transition into another impulsive cycle to the upside. The price target in this case is an increase to $8,400.
However, a breakdown below $1,382 would invalidate the entire wave count. ETH would need lose about a third of its value to reach that level, but given the 29% decline in the first quarter of 2026 and the February 6 low at $1,743, this is not out of reach under continued sales pressure.
If that invalidation level fails, the analyst’s projection points to a downside break below $900, with Fibonacci expansions on the chart pointing to lows between $800 and $500.
Featured image from iStock, chart from Tradingview.com