Token unlocks can be a double-edged sword for the market.
From an economic perspective, high token supply can weigh on sentiment, especially if underlying bidding pressure is weak. Still, the next $657 million in token unlocks couldn’t come at a better time.
On the macro side, risky sentiment is back. About $250 billion has flowed in since the start of 2026, and only 40% went to Bitcoin [BTC]. Why it matters: This points to a “market-led” rally rather than a BTC-driven rally.
Source: TradingView (OTHERS/BTC)
The question remains, though: is this the start of a full-fledged alt season?
Historically, altcoin cycles often begin after the ALT/BTC bottom bottoms and breaks out.
Take the Q4 2016 cycle: ALT/BTC bottomed out, broke the downtrend, and in Q1 and Q2 2017 there was a big alt run, causing the Altcoin Seasonal Index up to 100.
Remarkably, a similar pattern now appears to be forming. ALT/BTC has been declining in value for four years, the RSI is extremely oversold and the MACD is finally turning green after 21 months.
It appears that the downward trend has bottomed out in the fourth quarter of 2025.
Taken together, both the technical and macro setups indicate that the upcoming token unlocks could fuel more liquidity in altcoins. However, the question remains: which altcoins will see the most supply affected?
Altcoins are seeing a rotation as major unlocks hit the market
More than 657 million dollars received token unlocks are scheduled for this week.
However, the timing differs: one-time unlocks, such as HYPE and APT, can hit the market all at once. Meanwhile, linear unlocks such as SOL, TRUMP and DOGE are releasing more than $1 million daily, gradually increasing supply.
Among the one-time cliff altcoins is Hyperliquid [HYPE]For example, almost $330 million worth of HYPE will be released. At the current market price, that equates to approximately 12.7 million HYPE tokens hitting the market.
Source: DeFilLama
On the chain it looks well positioned to handle the pressure.
According to MintGlassHyperliquid’s open interest (OI) is $8.79 billion, an over-24 hour trading volume of $7 billion, while TVL is $4.30 billion. This also makes it the best DEX token, reinforcing a strong bidding wall underneath.
Combined with the technical setup, this could push more capital into alts. If this trend continues, next week the Altcoin Season Index could finally break out against Bitcoin, potentially signaling the start of the next altcoin cycle.
Final thoughts
- One-time unlocks like HYPE and APT can hit the market all at once, while linear unlocks like SOL, TRUMP, and DOGE gradually increase supply.
- Oversold ALT/BTC, green MACD, and strong on-chain metrics could fuel a market-led rotation that could see a breakout of the Altcoin Season Index against BTC.