The XRP price fell to a four-month low on Wednesday, reaching $1.14. The drop has contributed to broader weakness within crypto, and both chart analysis and on-chain indicators now point to a more bearish environment for the altcoin.
XRP price drops below major averages
Market expert Sam Daodu argued in a new analysis of what’s driving this move that there isn’t much for bulls to lean on at the moment. One of the most immediate problems is the trend structure.
According to According to Daodu, the
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He noted that the weekly exponential moving averages (EMAs) are higher, clustered between $1.50 and $1.78, which has effectively limited any rebound attempt. That means even as XRP bounces, buyers have struggled to push it out of that higher resistance band.
The outlook also looks tough when you compare the XRP price to the 200-day moving average, a level that Daodu sees as a dividing line between bullish and bearish regimes.
The expert placed this key reference price at around $1.64, describing it as a “long climb back” from current trading levels of around $1.17 at the time of writing. This underlines how far the asset would likely need to recover to regain a more constructive trend.
Whale intakes reach four-year low
Activity in the chain adds another area of concern for the XRP price. Whale withdrawals from Binance – often seen as a calmer bullish sign as it can indicate large holders are taking assets off the exchanges to hold them for the long term – have fallen sharply.
Over the past 30 days, whale withdrawals have fallen to around 978 million XRP, which Daodu described as the lowest value since 2021, which is actually the lowest level in four years.
Over the same period, data from CryptoQuant indicates that large farmer accumulation has stalled, implying that large farmers are not adding with conviction during this decline.
With this in mind, Daodu’s bearish stance focuses on three main price levels. The first is $1.14, which he considers the near-term technical target. The second is $1.11, the February low.
The third is $1, aligned with the monthly Bollinger floor and treated as a potential endpoint if selling pressure continues. He also stressed that if macro conditions do not improve and whales remain reluctant to accumulate, these levels could become the next stop.
What recovery depends on
Daodu also suggested that the way forward could depend on three factors. The first is whether the XRP price can defend $1.14. If this holds, the bullish case can still play; if it breaks, he expects the move could extend to $1.11 and possibly the $1 area.
The second factor is the vote on the CLARITY Act. A vote before the August recess would help clarify the regulatory picture, while no vote could add to the disappointment and exacerbate existing macro pressures.
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The third factor is whale behavior again – specifically, whether whale withdrawals from Binance will start to rise back above the current 978 million XRP value in the last 30 days. Rising withdrawals above that level would indicate renewed accumulation by larger holders.
Even with these bearish indicators, Daodu cautioned that the decline is not necessarily rooted in XRP-specific fundamentals. He argued that the XRP price was cut along with the rest of the market, meaning the next phase will likely depend on how those broader market conditions develop.
Featured image created with OpenArt; chart from TradingView.com