Goldman Sachs warned that macro uncertainties remain significant, although short-term risk to equities has declined. Yields on US 10-year Treasury notes rose above 4.63%, AMBCrypto reported, the highest level since February 2025.
A lack of clarity on the US-Iran peace talks and rising oil prices are adding to the macro risk outlook.
Bitcoin since Friday, May 15 [BTC] has corrected by 5.15% and has fallen from $81,000 to $76.9,000. The 4-hour chart has a bullish structure, but the area up to $90k was a higher timeframe supply zone.
The recent losses have been driven almost entirely by the capitulation of short-term holders. Analyst Moreno pointed out to CryptoQuant that short-term holders’ profit-taking in the previous 24 hours amounted to just 112 BTC.
For comparison, STH sold about 15,000 BTC at a loss, as shown by the 24-hour short-term holder P&L to exchange metric.
This suggested that the correction from $81,000 has forced weak hands to sell in increasing numbers. The inflows to the exchanges must be absorbed to continue the short-term upward trend in the price.
As the price chart showed earlier, a drop below $74,937 would shift the H4 structure bearishly. Until then, despite the macro risks, there is room to continue the short-term upward trend higher.
Bearish BTC bias after the composite signal drops below zero
The Bitcoin bull-bear structure index used by analyst Axel Adler Jr. takes into account six market signals, including taker imbalance, funding rate, and ETF flows.
Negative values show a bearish structure, and both the slow and fast versions of the index indicated bearishness.
The index remained positive for only three days during the last bullish impulse move above $80,000. After that, the price has turned bearish again, meaning that the pressure from the sellers has completely absorbed the impulse from the buyer.
The Bitcoin price structure composite signal dipped into negative territory, indicating that sellers were in control. The composite was around -0.55 and momentum dropped to -0.78.
These findings confirmed the stable bearish regime findings of the structure index.
Reversing this bearish regime will require steady ETF inflows and price movement above the 7-day EMA of $78.2k, along with higher open interest and bullish funding rates.
Final summary
- The 4-hour price structure was technically bullish, but other metrics placed Bitcoin in a stable bearish regime.
- A price move above $78.2k, greater ETF inflows and derivatives volume are needed to trigger a BTC revival.