The CLARITY Act could be signed into law the week of August 3 if Congress keeps pace after a vote by the bipartisan Senate Banking Committee advanced the crypto market structure bill to the next stage, according to Galaxy Digital’s research arm.
Galaxy research increased her estimate of the bill’s chances of becoming law in 2026 is 75%, after the committee voted 15-9 on May 14 to advance the legislation.
The vote gave the long-running digital assets bill its most significant Senate breakthrough yet, though the timeline remains narrow and several political disputes remain unresolved.
The bill now enters a more complicated path that will require combining the Senate Banking Committee’s text with a version advanced by the Senate Agriculture Committee before Senate leaders can take up the measure.
If it passes the Senate, lawmakers would still have to reconcile it with the House version before sending the final legislation to President Donald Trump.
That process leaves little room for delay. Congress has only so many weeks of work before the August recess, and major legislation often becomes more difficult to accomplish once lawmakers return in a midterm election year.
A bipartisan vote gives the bill a path forward
The Senate vote on the Banks marked a shift toward a bill that was in danger of being advanced on a party-line basis. All Republicans on the committee supported the measure, while Democratic Sens. Ruben Gallego of Arizona and Angela Alsobrooks of Maryland joined them to advance the bill.
Notably, both Democrats warned that their committee votes did not guarantee support when the bill reached the Senate.
That distinction will determine the next round of negotiations. A vote in committee can move legislation forward, but a vote in the Senate poses a higher hurdle in practice because supporters will need sufficient Democratic support to overcome procedural hurdles.
The late support from Gallego and Alsobrooks followed negotiations at the markup, where lawmakers added a package of amendments from Sen. Cynthia Lummis. Several Democrats supported parts of that compromise, even though only Gallego and Alsobrooks ultimately voted for the bill.
The result gave crypto policy advocates a bipartisan outcome after months of talks, but it also showed how thin the margin remains.
The bill has passed a major hurdle as the votes needed for final passage continue to be gathered.
Ethical demands become central to the conversations
The next phase is expected to focus on the ethics language Democrats are looking for.
Gallego and Alsobrooks have pushed for restrictions that would limit senior government officials and their family members from profiting from, promoting or owning certain interests in digital assets while federal crypto rules are written.
These demands come as Democrats have increased scrutiny of political conflicts related to crypto activity. Senator Elizabeth Warren, a renowned crypto skeptic, had even protested the bill because it “fails to lift even the smallest finger to address the Trump administration’s crypto-related corruption.”
Taking this into consideration, the Galaxy analysts said the ethical issue is the most important outstanding issue for securing democratic support. The company expects a version of an ethics amendment to be offered later in the process, likely during a Senate debate.
Meanwhile, other contested areas continue to play a role, including decentralized finance and the Blockchain Regulatory Surety Act. Law enforcement-focused lawmakers have raised concerns that parts of the bill could limit oversight of decentralized protocols, validators or other infrastructure providers.
Galaxy said these issues are still open to negotiation, although an ethical compromise may be enough to keep the bill moving even without broader changes to DeFi language.
The calendar is now the biggest limitation
Galaxy’s planned timeline would require Senate Banking and Senate Agriculture negotiators to reconcile their CLARITY Act versions in early June and complete that work quickly. Senate floor consideration should then begin around mid-June, with final Senate approval before the end of that month.
That would leave July for negotiations between the House and Senate and the final vote on a reconciled measure. According to Galaxy’s timeline, the House of Representatives could pass the final version by the end of July, which would allow Trump to sign the CLARITY Act bill into law the week of August 3.
Meanwhile, the White House is already pushing for a faster schedule.
Patrick Witt, executive director of the President’s Council of Advisors for Digital Assets, said earlier that the administration was focused on Congress’ passage of the CLARITY Act on July 4, a goal that would require an even tighter set of actions from the Senate and House of Representatives.
Galaxy’s target for August appears more forgiving than the White House’s Independence Day target, but it still depends on whether lawmakers will avoid delays in committee reconciliation, floor planning and final negotiations in the House of Representatives.
According to Galaxy’s analysis, that floor debate could last about a week. Any protracted battle over ethics, DeFi, stablecoin rewards, or anti-money laundering provisions could push the bill closer to the recess deadline.