The previous Bitcoin market top may not have been marked by a dramatic crash or a clear sell signal, but by a highly coordinated, sophisticated wave of whales. distribution. While most participants were driven by optimism and bullish beliefs, major investors were quietly unwinding positions in a manner that aligned with normal market activity.
How Whale Distributed Bitcoin Without Triggering Warning Signs
The top of the Bitcoin market last year was less clear than in previous cycles and developed through a quiet, well-coordinated wave of whale distribution. ForeDex on X revealed that at a time when BTC participants were filled with optimism and conviction, a whale moved approximately 30,000 BTC to exchanges over 10 days via Galaxy Digital. Meanwhile, most market participants did not recognize the importance of these flows.
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ForeDex explained that BTC was split into smaller amounts and distributed across multiple exchanges, unlike previous cycles. Earlier market Furthermore, large flows, often ranging from several thousand to 10,000 BTC, were sent directly to platforms such as Coinbase, Binance or Gemini in a single transaction, making these movements relatively easy to detect.
However, after the adoption of the ETF, the market structure and trading behavior became more sophisticated. As the selling pressure was spread across different exchanges, the historical exchange-specific selling premium became less reliable. Even the well-known Coinbase-Binance Gap data no longer shows these traces as clearly as it used to.
Ultimately, BTC market dynamics are evolving and new patterns are constantly coming to the fore. Even if some participants had identified unusual flows, the strong optimism and conviction at the peak would likely have led many to dismiss them.
Bitcoin could face another liquidity swing to the downside
Bitcoin is showing signs of a weakening market structure, with the price forming lower highs after the $82,000 rejection. Crypto analyst Kaz has noted that one of the biggest warning signs is the sharp increase in Open Interest (OI) that is happening aggressively, and that both the perpetual and spot Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) are trending down, indicating that bullish traders are already starting to be squeezed out of the market.
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At the same time, bears appear to be actively building short positions, an ongoing trend liquidation that adds fuel to the decline. Kaz argues that additional long positions could be wiped out as perpetual and spot CVDs are currently declining and there is still long liquidation at the downside.
Currently, BTC is retesting the $80,000 level with the highest OI bearish positioning seen at this level yet. In the bullish case, if the price remains above the $80,000 zone and CVD starts to rise, the market could trigger a short squeeze back towards the $82,000 resistance.
In the bearish scenario, a loss of the $80,000 level, combined with the current weak internals, could lead to a liquidity clearing from the lows, with price possibly on the way to testing the point of weak order (pwO).
Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com