Bitcoin has found its way back to $70,000 after a sharp drop to around $67,000, but Glassnode says the recovery still doesn’t have the kind of demand profile needed to turn stabilization into a more sustainable recovery.
In his last weekly magazine report on March 25, titled Awaiting Liquidity, the on-chain analytics firm argued that several pressure points have eased all at once, including sell-side intensity, ETF outflows and dealer-driven market imbalances. Still, the subdued spot volumes, moderate leverage and dense overhead supply suggest the market is not yet in a high-conviction breakout phase.
Weak demand for bitcoins could limit the upside
The central point of Glassnode is that the structure has improved, but not enough to declare the correction complete. “Bitco is starting to show some constructive signs after a sharp corrective move, with price stabilizing, ETF flows improving and derivatives positioning becoming less one-sided,” the report said. “The pressure that defined the recent sell-off appears to be easing and the market is starting to look more balanced than it did a week ago.”
However, that balance is within a narrow and still fragile range. Glassnode said a new accumulation cluster is forming around current levels, with the 1-week to 1-month cohort having a cost base of nearly $70,200. That gives the market a developing support floor, but one that the company describes as vulnerable as its current buyer base remains modest.
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Above the market, the resistance picture is heavier. The 1-3 month holder cohort is around $82,200, while Glassnode also highlighted a larger cluster of short-term holder offerings between around $93,000 and $97,000. Elsewhere in the report, “a noticeably heavy concentration of short-term bond supply above $84,000” was noted, describing that supply as a potential source of renewed selling pressure in any sustained recovery attempt.
The on-chain background also points to a market under pressure, but not a market in outright panic. Relative unrealized losses have stabilized above 15% of market cap over the past two months, a pattern that Glassnode says resembles the Q2 2022 scare, although still a long way from capitulation episodes like the FTX collapse.
At the same time, achieved profitability has thinned out dramatically. Entity-adjusted realized profits, on a seven-day moving average basis, have fallen from approximately $3 billion per day in July 2025 to less than $100 million today, a decline of more than 96%. For Glassnode, that speaks to both sides of the current setup: there are fewer profitable sellers left to distribute coins, but also a weaker flow of fresh capital into the market.
“Spot market activity remains relatively subdued following the sharp sell-off in the $67,000 region, with overall exchange volumes showing only a modest response during the subsequent recovery,” the report said.
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Compared to the stronger participation during previous impulsive developments, current spot volumes remain weak. This suggests that the recovery to $70,000 so far has been supported more by selective dip buying and near-term repositioning than by broad spot market demand returning at scale.”
According to Glassnode, that is the missing ingredient. ETF outflows have improved, with the seven-day average turning modestly positive after an extended period of outflows, suggesting that institutional commitment has quickly recovered. But the company emphasized that the size of these inflows remains limited compared to previous accumulation phases.
Derivatives markets tell a similarly cautious story. The perpetual funding rate remains negative, implying that traders are still paying to maintain downside exposure, while futures open interest has remained relatively subdued rather than growing with the rebound. The options markets are no longer under acute stress, but they are also not pricing in strong upside convictions. The short-term skew remains tilted toward puts, indicating continued demand for downside protection, even as longer-term positioning appears more balanced.
An important short-term variable is the weekly, monthly and quarterly expiration of the options on Friday. Glassnode said dealers remain concentrated in short ranges between $70,000 and $75,000, with about $10 billion of that positioning set to disappear. Once that mechanical influence disappears, BTC may become more sensitive to broader macro and liquidity conditions.
At the time of writing, BTC was trading at $69,961.
Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com