Spot Bitcoin ETFs listed in the US recorded their steepest single-day outflows in nearly three weeks on Friday, wiping $349 million from all eleven products combined, according to data from On the other side.
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The shots came as Bitcoin slid back to $68,000 after briefly touching $74,000 earlier this week – a run-up that, based on on-chain data, appears to have been the trigger for a significant sell-off by large holders.
Large holders bought low and then sold fast
Crypto analysis platform Santiment tracked the behavior of wallets holding between 10 and 10,000 Bitcoin – a group commonly referred to as whales – and found that they had aggressively built positions between February 23 and March 3, when prices were stuck in the $62,900 to $69,600 range.
When Bitcoin crossed $74,000 on Wednesday, those same wallets started unloading. By Friday, about 66% of what they collected in that 10-day period had been sold back into the market.
Smaller investors moved in the opposite direction. Portfolios holding less than 0.01 Bitcoin – the retail side of the market – have increased their positions as prices fell.
According to Santiment, these types of differences between large and small investors have historically pointed to more downsides ahead.
“If retail is buying while whales are selling, it generally signals that the correction is not over yet,” the platform said in a Friday report.
Anxiety meter drops to its lowest level in weeks
Bitcoin’s decline pushed the Crypto Fear & Greed Index six points to a score of 12 on Saturday, placing it deep into ‘Extreme Fear’ territory. The index measures market sentiment based on a range of factors, including volatility, trading volume and social media activity.
Some analysts said Bitcoin could still face another decline if buyers fail to defend the current price zone. A loss of support around $67,000-$68,000 could lead to a return to recent lows to gather liquidity before a possible recovery.
One economist’s plea for a $60,000 floor
Not everyone sees a crisis coming. Economist Timothy Peterson pointed to the Bitcoin Price to Metcalfe Value chart — a model that measures Bitcoin’s price against the estimated value of its network based on user activity — and said the $60,000 level has held as a low in every previous cycle.
“About a 99.5% chance it stays above $60,000,” Peterson wrote on X.
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Bitcoin had already tested that level once this cycle, falling to $60,000 on February 6 during a broader pullback from a record high of $126,000 in October.
Since then, the price has partially recovered, although Friday’s ETF outflows and continued whale selling suggest the market has not yet found stable footing.
Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from TradingView