Bitcoin’s higher time frame structure is in an interesting state, according to crypto analyst Crypto Patel, who believes the cryptocurrency officially entering bearish territory after breaking a long-term support level at $107,000.
Technical analysis of the price action on the weekly candlestick price chart shows that Bitcoin is now in this bearish territory, with a projection of a deeper correction as high as $35,000 in 2026. The outlook is based on Fibonacci retracement levels that determine Bitcoin’s next price movement.
Bearish Territory entered into action after a collapse below $107,000
The outlook of this technical analysis is based on the premise that Bitcoin entered bearish territory after the price fell below a major rising trendline on a higher time frame around $107,000. This trend line, that is visible on the weekly chart shared by Crypto Patel, acted as dynamic support for much of the rally from 2023 to 2025. It tied a series of higher lows and helped sustain the broader bullish structure that ended when Bitcoin reached a peak price of $126,080.
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The chart shows the breakdown zone with a red circle, indicating where the price finally lost that upside support. After the breach, Bitcoin entered a changed momentum and started printing lower highs. According to Patel, that trendline was the line in the sand, and losing it was the moment Bitcoin officially entered bearish territory. The market now needs a healthy correction before the next rise.
Fibonacci levels point at $44,000 and $35,000
Bitcoin has entered a downward path since the beginning of the year, and the projection is that this will continue until it does comes out to about $35,000. This outlook is based on the extent to which the Bitcoin price has corrected in previous cycles.
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For example, the 2018 bear market saw a decline of approximately 84% from peak to trough. Likewise, the 2022 correction has wiped out about 77% of the cycle high. In both cases, these deep retracements occurred before the next major rally.
Based on that historical perspective, a move below $50,000 from the current price level would not be unprecedented. Instead, it would fit within Bitcoin’s established cycle behavior.
The expected downside targets are derived from Fibonacci retracement levels drawn from the all-time high of October 2025. Two levels clearly stand out on the map. The first level is the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement, which is currently around $44,000. The 0.5 Fibonacci retracement is a mid-cycle pullback level and has always generated strong buying interest in past corrections. making it a possible stabilization point when the selling pressure decreases.
Should Bitcoin fail to find support near $44,000, the next level will be the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement around $35,000. Bitcoin is expected to eventually fall to $35,000 even if it does not stay above $44,000. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $63,740, down 6% in the last 24 hours.
Featured image of Pngtree, chart from Tradingview.com