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Home»Analysis»This legendary $197 million bear has flipped long, highly leveraged altcoins, but funding rates indicate a dangerous trap
Analysis

This legendary $197 million bear has flipped long, highly leveraged altcoins, but funding rates indicate a dangerous trap

2025-12-30No Comments7 Mins Read
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There are traders you hear about because they talk, and traders you hear about because their footprints keep showing up in public data.

The wallet that crypto Twitter calls ‘BitcoinOG’, ‘1011short’ or a variation of those names falls into the second category.

In October the story was simple and loud. The wallet was linked to a huge BTC short on Hyperliquid, and Look at chain posted regular updates as the position grew, was adjusted, and then closed.

A after said the trader closed his BTC shorts completely and walked away with over $197 million spread across two wallets, another suggested they move USDC to Binance right after. I’m not going to re-litigate every screenshot from that period; the point is that this trader was branded in the public imagination as a “short legend”.

Now the data says we are in a different chapter.

At the time the new story starts, 850 SOL long will open in an hour

If you stare at the perpetrator’s activity long enough, you start to recognize human behavior versus machine behavior.

Hypurrscan facts `0xb317…83ae` shows 873 “Open Long” events on SOL USD, and 863 of them land on December 25.

In fact, 850 of those December 25 SOL longs land within a one-hour window, from 3:00 PM to 3:59 PM UTC. That’s the kind of clustered execution that resembles an algo doing a job, not a person clicking buttons.

Hyperliquid BitcoinOG Trader Dashboard (Source: HypurrScan)
Hyperliquid BitcoinOG Trader Dashboard (Source: HypurrScan)

Prices are also tight. In that same hour, the average fill price is around $123.12, and the middle range of fills is between around $123.01 and $123.16. There are outliers in the data set, but the focus is clear: trading was built around the low $123s.

So a trader who has built a reputation on a dramatic short position comes back later and buys, and he does so calmly, quickly, and in a way that suggests he is more interested in gaining exposure than showing off timing.

The wallet not only bought SOL, but funded an entire campaign

That December 25 SOL eruption makes more sense when you look at the financing.

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USDC deposits at the address total approximately $430.0 million, withdrawals total approximately $138.5 million, so net inflows are approximately $291.5 million over the covered period. The deposits are lumpy, as you would expect when a wallet prepares for a large margin book. In one day alone, $110 million was deposited on December 11, with additional large deposit days around $70 million and $50 million in early December.

This is where the story stops being a “SOL trade” and starts to resemble a portfolio bet.

Because December 11 is also the day the wallet starts moving down what seems like a ladder of intention.

Within the Hyperliquid data, nine blocks of 100 BTC each were placed for approximately $91,600, totaling 1,000 BTC worth of orders, which amounts to approximately $91.54 million notional. There is also a large cluster of orders priced around $3,000 corresponding to ETH price levels, and the net notional value of these orders is approximately $273.6 million, with a large gross notional in both directions, likely reflecting order updates and adjustments rather than a single pure directional print.

Then there’s SOL again, this time in big limit blocks, five 50,000 SOL orders placed around $135.50 to $139.00, plus two 30,000 SOL blocks around $123.89 to $124.00.

Even without guessing what was executed versus what was posted and retrieved, it tells you what this trader was thinking about. They built the ability to become big, with different assets, and they did it with orders, not vibrations.

They had a large long basket for ETH, BTC and SOL, with low single digit leverage at the account level and a drawdown that is not small. The same screenshot shows financing costs on the long side that are meaningful, the kind of number you notice if you plan to hold.

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Many whales look smart when the market moves their way. The interesting ones are the ones who can sit uncomfortably, maintain their size, and still sleep at night. This wallet has that vibe, at least as far as we can tell.

Why this matters, apart from whale watching

It’s tempting to write this as a character piece, short king becomes tall man, the end. It’s more interesting than that.

The most useful way to read this is as a signal about what kind of market people are willing to play at the moment.

Perps markets expand when traders become comfortable with holding leverage. They shrink when traders become fearful of financing, volatility and forced exits. When a wallet like this brings in hundreds of millions of USDC, places big ladders, and then executes 850 SOL longs in an hour, it’s a sign that at least one serious participant believes risk appetite will be rewarded in the coming weeks.

There is also a cross-market context supporting the vote. Last week, Binance overtook CME in bitcoin futures open interest. Whether you think that’s good or bad, it fits with the general idea that money flows into locations and products where it’s easy to express big opinions.

For this wallet, the perpetrators form the main stage.

The risk that determines the outcome, financing and correlation

There are two things that can make a large long basket a problem.

One of them is financing. When the long positions pay and the market moves sideways, time becomes the enemy. You can follow the SOL financing regimes directly MintGlassand it’s worth keeping that chart open while you watch to see if the wallet gets added or trimmed.

The other is correlation. A basket looks diversified until the market reminds you that sometimes crypto moves as one asset, and then SOL moves faster than the rest. A correlated down move hits the book on multiple lines at the same time, and financing may still charge for the privilege.

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That’s the scenario that forces decisions.

Three clean scenarios that we can then build around

Here is a set of results that can be modeled around the current behavior of this wallet, and they can all be tested using the same on-chain and perpetrator data we already collect.

Scenario one: continuation with risk.
BTC and ETH are moving higher, SOL is performing better, funding remains manageable, the December 25 SOL burst reads like a calculated plus, and the wallet is looking early instead of reckless.

Scenario two: chop and bleed.
The price moves sideways, funding remains positive, the book quietly leaks, the wallet reduces exposure or begins to hedge, and the public narrative shifts from genius to test of patience.

Scenario three: risk shock.
A fast correlated sell-off hits the basket, volatility spikes, the book is squeezed by both price and risk limits, and the wallet defends itself with new collateral or quickly de-risks.

What I’m going to watch next

If you want one simple “next chapter” indicator, pay attention to repetition.

If we see another hour like December 25, another dense cluster of SOL long opens around a single level, indicating this trader has a playbook and they are executing with conviction.

If instead we see USDC draining, fewer openings and more ladder cancellations, it suggests this was a tactical push and the wallet is protecting itself from carry.

Anyway, the reason this wallet is still interesting has nothing to do with the memes associated with it. It’s interesting because it acts like a real trader, the kind that first creates an account, gets on the ladder, executes in no time and then lives with the position.

If you’ve been reading whale alerts like sports scores, this is the kind of tape that deserves another lens.

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Altcoins Bear dangerous flipped Funding highly legendary leveraged long Million Rates Trap
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