At the start of the week, the XRP price saw a 4% decline, leaving it almost 50% below its all-time high. However, analysts predict significant gains for one of the market’s leading altcoins in January 2026, citing three key catalysts that could reshape the market’s outlook.
An important step towards broader access
In a recent one analysisSam Daodu, a market expert from 24/7 Wall St., emphasized the importance of Vanguard’s decision to approve trading in XRP Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs).
Daodu emphasized that the real meaning lies in facilitating distribution; where Vanguard’s advisors can allocate XRP exposure through regulated ETFs without additional cumbersome processes.
He indicated that three interrelated factors are now at play: the inflow of institutional capital ETF investmentsa reduction in Vanguard’s supply and influence in changing its approach to the asset.
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In particular, the results of the token’s exchange-traded fund launch have already been notable, with XRP inflows reaching $1 billion in the first four weeks of trading, making it one of the fastest-growing crypto ETF launches to date.
Furthermore, the market supply of
This contraction can be attributed to large holders refraining from distributing their tokens, which has led to an accumulation of whale portfolios and the removal of tokens from liquid markets due to ETF Custody.
This reduced supply implies that smaller inflows now have a greater influence. With only 1.6 billion tokens available on exchanges, investing $20-30 million in daily ETF purchases could have a substantial impact on market supply.
An important driver for price appreciation
The launch of the Vanguard XRP ETF is particularly important in this context, as it captures tokens regulated custody vehicles that will be sold less often.
Unlike tokens that are held on exchanges and can be moved in and out quickly, ETF custody tends to encourage a buy-and-hold strategy, fostering conditions for a gradual price appreciation fueled by sustained institutional demand amid dwindling available supply.
Since the decision to grant ETF access was made late in the year, year-end trading is typically focused on maintaining existing allocations rather than creating new positions.
While the ETF adds credibility to XRP without causing immediate price pressure, it does travel to a $3 valuation in January will depend on the speed at which advisory capital is mobilized, the sustainability of supply compression and the overall stability of the markets.
XRP price path to $3
Three potential scenarios present themselves for the future of XRP. In the most optimistic scenario, advisory capital moves faster than usual, perhaps allowing advisors to integrate small XRP allocations during the January rebalancing.
In this case XRP ETF inflow could remain robust, ranging from $40-60 million per day, while the blocked supply on the exchanges supports a price increase that could see the XRP price surpass $2.25, aim for $2.60, and possibly test $3 by the end of January.
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The middle perspective suggests more conventional institutional timing. In this scenario, while access to XRP ETFs will gain attention in December, actual allocations could gradually increase, leading to daily inflows of around $20-30 million instead of the previously expected pace.
Here, XRP price could make higher lows and break the $2.25 barrier resistance between $2.40 and $2.80. Price fluctuations would focus more on future adoption rather than immediate implications.
According to Daodu’s conclusions, and given these circumstances, reaching the $3 price for XRP could take until the first or second quarter of 2026, rather than being an immediate milestone.
Featured image of DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com