Key Takeaways
What signs suggest Bitcoin may be entering a bullish recovery?
Figures such as net unrealized profit, miner accumulation and a developing ‘golden cross’ point to a potential recovery.
What could drive the price of Bitcoin towards $130,000 by the end of the year?
A breakout above $110,000, rising ETF inflows and favorable macroeconomic data could fuel the rally.
Bitcoin [BTC] has faced continued selling pressure since hitting an all-time high of $126,199.
According to data from TradingView, it has since lost around 16.89% at the time of writing. However, there are signs that market sentiment may be changing as the bulls reemerge.
First signs of a bullish recovery
Indicators of a possible Bitcoin recovery are starting to emerge. The Bitcoin Net Unrealized Profit (NUP) metric suggests that there could be a market bottom.
Historical data shows that when Bitcoin trades below the 0.5 region on the NUP chart, it typically recovers shortly after moving above it.
This pattern occurred in January 2024, July 2024, and April 2025. At the time of writing, Bitcoin NUP was at 0.47, indicating that a similar fractal pattern could be forming.
Source: CryptoQuant
Miners appear to be adapting accordingly. Data from CryptoQuant shows that the mining index has fallen into the negative zone and stood at -0.3.
This indicates that miners are reducing their selling activities and instead gradually accumulating more Bitcoin.
More and more bullish patterns are emerging
The Technical Pricing Model, which combines short- and long-term moving averages (SMA) to identify rally signals, also reflects bullish sentiment.
Specifically, Bitcoin has historically recovered every time the 50-day moving average (50DMA) crosses above the 200-day moving average (200DMA), a pattern often called the Golden Cross.
Source: Glassnode
This formation appeared in September 2023, August 2024 and April 2025, each time preceding a significant price increase.
A similar situation is currently emerging, as spot and institutional activity continues to point to an impending rebound.
Institutional investors have done that reportedly recently purchased approximately $523.98 million worth of Bitcoin.
Meanwhile, spot investors sold about $71.9 million last week, after a much larger purchase of $536.58 million the previous month.
Experts see Bitcoin reaching $130,000
Farzam Ehsani, co-founder and CEO of VALR, believes Bitcoin is showing signs of strength, but the real rally has not yet started. He explained that a breakout above $110,000 could be the main trigger for a stronger bullish trend.
Ehsani added that as the US government shutdown nears a resolution and more macroeconomic data emerges, risk assets like Bitcoin could see clearer direction. He pointed to inflation and CPI data as potential catalysts.
“[This could be] the start of a new upward market cycle and opens the door for BTC to retest its previous highs and even move higher towards $130,000 before the end of the year, especially if ETF inflows pick up again.”