- BTC has remained below $60,000 for more than a week.
- Glassnode’s founders suggested that US CPI data could determine the next direction.
Bitcoin [BTC] has remained below $60,000 for a week and was down 7% in the third quarter at the time of writing. The downward pressure comes mainly from the government and the Mount Gox sell-off, which provided leverage in the bear market.
However, per a market observerBitcoin bears’ days could be numbered as the German government’s main selling pressure could soon subside.
“Bears, you better hope that a very high percentage of Gox sellers will join you soon or your days now seem numbered.”
Bullish Catalysts for Bitcoin
The pseudonymous analyst cited several bullish catalysts for BTC, including rising global liquidity and the possible absorption of the German government’s remaining BTC shares by next week.
‘The German government is new < 3 weken geleden begonnen met de verkoop van ~$3 miljard aan $BTC, > 50% already sold + probably within a week or so at the current rate.”
According to Arkham Intelligence factsOn Thursday, the German government sent more than $60 million worth of BTC to centralized exchanges, bringing their BTC balance to 13.1K coins, or about $767 million.
Bitcoin could also benefit from the FTX payout, which is estimated to be around $16 billion and will be paid in cash at the end of Q3 2024. According to the analyst, this could add more liquidity for BTC and the overall market.
Another analyst, Miles Deutscher, supported the above view, including a Trump victory, summarizing the catalysts as a ‘huge opportunity’ for long setups.
Another market observer, MartyPartyquestioned Trump’s profit impact given the recent push on the CFTC (Commodities Futures Trading Commission) to oversee spot BTC markets.
“If the CFTC gets this expansion of authority, it would mean that they will likely require every Bitcoin company to register with the federal government and have stricter KYC/AML requirements. This will not only impact the stock exchanges, but every company that touches Bitcoin.”
What’s next for the Bitcoin price?
Source: BTC/USDT, TradingView
In the meantime, BTC flirted with the 200-day SMA (Simple Moving Average) but had yet to convert into support. The weak market structure was further confirmed by below-average figures for the RSI (Relative Strength Index) and CMF (Chaikin Money Flow).
However, BTC’s next price direction could be determined after the June US CPI (Consumer Price Index) data, scheduled for July 11.
A slower inflation print could confirm the deflationary trend and prompt the Fed to consider rate cuts and possibly prompt BTC to adopt the 200-day SMA.
But higher-than-expected inflation could give the bears more leverage to send BTC lower. Interesting enough, Founders of Glassnodereiterated the above position and opined that the CPI data would likely determine the next direction for the BTC price.