Disclaimer: The information presented does not constitute financial, investment, trading or other advice and is solely the opinion of the author.
- Toncoin showed an upward trend in a higher time frame from the end of August
- The price chart in the lower time frame indicated a possible bullish breakout, but should traders rely on it?
Tonmint [TON] bulls benefited from the recent Bitcoin [BTC] golf. Since October 20, TON is up almost 10%. However, the higher time frame price charts showed that the token was already climbing higher.
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This HTF rally started in late August when a local high of $1.53 reversed into support. This move caused a shift in the market structure and TON has maintained the upward trend.
The local resistance at $2.27 saw a sharp rejection
Source: TON/USDT on TradingView
In mid-September, Toncoin rose from $1,538 to $2,599 in one week, an increase of 62%. This rally was used to chart a series of Fibonacci retracement levels (light yellow). Over the past month, TON saw a price drop from $2.6 to $1.92.
Prices then consolidated within the $1.92-$2.16 region. The recent BTC move saw TON rise to $2.23, signaling a potential uptrend. However, the indicators did not fully support the idea.
While the Relative Strength Index (RSI) continued to rise above the neutral 50 on the four-hour chart, the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) was below -0.05.
Despite recent gains, the CMF showed significant capital outflows from the market. This suggested that TON was not yet ready for a real breakout and another rally. A move above $2.27 would be a good signal of solid bullish intent.
Open Interest showed bullish sentiment and gained some traction in recent days
Source: Mint glass
The Open Interest (OI) chart soared during TON’s rally to $2.6 in September. It experienced a price retrace in early October before bouncing higher over the past ten days. This reflected a growing bullish belief in the market.
Realistic or not, here is TON’s market cap in BTC terms
A drop below $2.12 would turn the TON market structure on the H4 chart bearish. It would also point to the likelihood of a retest of the $1.9 zone, which marked the bottom of the consolidation.