Analysts expect Monday to be an “eventful” trading session.
The question, however, is whether this is the most diplomatic way to describe what might actually unfold.
Looking at the ongoing developments surrounding the Iran-US conflict, the word “eventful” seems like an understated way to describe what the US stock market could face on Monday, April 20.
For context, the last 72 hours have been very volatile.
From the strengthening of the ceasefire to US President Donald Trump’s post on the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, followed by the Iranian government’s immediate rejection of his claims, the crypto market has reflected this exact sequence.
Bitcoin [BTC] briefly broke above $78k, but then retreated towards $75k. This raises an important question: where does crypto go next?
At the macro level, price action signals a growing downward asymmetry.
As the chart above shows, market odds now indicate a 44% chance that the US oil price will reach the $100 per barrel level this month. while Iran closes the Strait of Hormuz again.
It was striking that the oil price closed 5.9% lower during the last trading session after President Trump’s announcement.
The result?
A sharp risk rotation, with US shares rising sharply. For example, the S&P500 reached a record high and rose 1.2%. The crypto market followed suit with a 1.96% jump in the same window.
In short, capital turned into risky assets as oil prices fell and immediate supply fears temporarily subsided.
This brings the ‘moving’ story back into the spotlight. With markets expecting a shock to US stocks after a weekend marked by big developments, the question arises: will volatility spill over into crypto?
Crypto enters Monday, driven by liquidity and conviction
In less than 48 hours, the crypto market has erased all the gains made after crossing the $2.5 trillion level.
From a technical perspective, the market is responding to rising macro uncertainty, with nearly $70 billion flowing out of cryptocurrency over the same period. Of no confirmation of peace talksthe downtrend could still develop, especially as US stocks remain vulnerable to a possible shakeout on Monday.
If this trend continues, nearly $8.8 billion in Bitcoin long positions could face liquidation risk if BTC retreats to $67,000. Both macro conditions and on-chain spot volume indicate that this level remains a realistic downside target.
In this context, Michael Saylor’s latest message naturally begins to take on additional significance.
From a flow perspective, US investor behavior appears to be in line with Saylor’s positioning.
Bitcoin ETF inflows remain positive as the Coinbase Premium Index continues to climb higher, indicating continued demand in the US spot market.
The causal implication is twofold: either markets have not fully priced in the risk of a stock shock on Monday, or investor conviction remains strong enough to absorb the macro-driven volatility supported by Saylor’s recent X-post.
Either way, belief is important. With no signs of the Strait reopening anytime soon, higher oil prices could trigger a shakeup in U.S. stocks. However, current flows in the crypto market indicate limited spillover risk. If this trend continues, capital could instead rotate from stocks to crypto assets, making this an important trend to watch.
Final summary
- Geopolitical uncertainty and oil volatility could lead to a stock shock on Monday, increasing downward pressure on risky assets.
- Strong ETF inflows and spot market demand in the US indicate that capital may shift toward crypto rather than fully following stocks in a risk-off move.