After failing to overcome the critical short-term resistance at $1.60 last week, XRP has fallen around 8% and is back in the $1.35-$1.40 trading range. Market analyst Sam Daodu says three interconnected issues explain why recent rallies have failed and what needs to change for a sustainable recovery.
XRP faces resistance until Bitcoin clears $75,000
First, Bitcoin (BTC) dominance remains high. Daodu notes Bitcoin’s share of the crypto market hovered around 58.6% for much of 2026, staying above 58% most of the time. Historically, broad altcoin rallies usually begin when Bitcoin dominance falls below 50% and capital rotates from BTC to smaller tokens.
That rotation did not take place: institutions they do not reallocate to altcoins, but leave crypto behind or hold money in Bitcoin as a perceived safe haven. Daodu argues that unless Bitcoin definitively breaks and remains above $75,000, even XRP’s strong fundamentals are unlikely to materially impact its price.
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Second, large holders have been steadily making profits since XRP reached $3.65 in July 2025. Daodu estimates that about $6 billion worth of XRP has been sold by whales since that peak, and significant volumes continue to flow onto the exchanges.
The expert noted that many of these whales originally bought below $0.65, so they are willing to sell into rallies to secure gains, claiming that selling pressure keeps rallies short-lived.
Third, a large portion of holders are underwater, creating persistent resistance near the current price. Glassnode data cited by Daodu shows that 60% of circulating XRP is being held at a cost basis above current levels; the average cost basis for all holders is approximately $1.44.
Since that average is near the center of XRP’s recent trading band, holders who have lost money sell as the price approaches breakeven, using $1.45 as the take-profit level.
ETFs fail to absorb supply
Daodu adds that even if
Exchange traded funds (ETFs) focused on XRP add another structural limitation. Total assets under management (AuM) fell from the ITS January peak of $1.65 billion to around $1 billion as the token’s price fell.
At the current rate of inflows (about $1.9 million per week), ETFs would only add about $100 million by the end of the year, a level Daodu believes is insufficient to meaningfully soak up supply.
Is clear regulation the key?
Looking ahead, Daodu points to one potential catalyst that could change the dynamic: the long-awaited U.S. Crypto Market Structure Act, the CLARITY Actwhich has faced significant opposition in recent months due to key provisions that have prevented its passage.
If the bill becomes law and formally confirms XRP’s status as a commodity, Daodu argues, it would reduce regulatory uncertainty and enable broader institutional adoption.
That, in turn, could encourage banks to move into XRP rather than rely on alternatives like Ripple’s RLUSD stablecoincreating the kind of demand pressure that could eventually push the price out of its current range.
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In short, Daodu’s view is that XRP needs to change several things at once: a change in capital flows away from Bitcoin, less selling by large holders, and significantly greater inflows from ETFs – or a regulatory development that brings institutions on board.
Until some of these factors move in tandem, XRP rallies are likely to remain short-lived, the analyst says, and the token will remain stuck near its recent trading range.
Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com