For years, the crypto industry argued that institutional adoption would boost price momentum and prevent major crashes.
Currently, that story seems broken because the market isn’t just slowing down; it shows signs of a deep struggle.
Crypto market is testing hard water
According to one analystMore than $2 trillion in value has been wiped out in the past 140 days. The overall crypto market capitalization has shrunk sharply. Bitcoin [BTC] has fallen to around $63,228, almost 50% below its peak at the time of writing.
Ethereum [ETH] was trading around $1,825, down about 62% from its high. However, the biggest damage is in altcoins. Solana [SOL] has fallen by around 68%, and many smaller tokens have lost up to 90% of their value.
Instead of fear and greed, the market now feels exhausted and defeated. This feels bigger than a normal correction.
Factors behind this downturn
The main question now is whether this is simply the end of a new market cycle or something longer lasting.
If you look closely, investors quickly moved on from worries after the excitement of 2025, and that’s the case now fixed in panic mode.
Source: Merlijn De Handel/X
Anxiety levels are extremely highand many retailers are reluctant to take action. At the same time, large and experienced investors closely monitor important indicators such as the MVRV ratio.
Bitcoin’s 30-day MVRV is -10.33%, and Ethereum’s is -14.04%, showing that most people who have recently made a purchase are losing money.
Source: Santiment
In the past, such levels often suggested that prices were oversold and was able to bounce back. However, at the end of 2025 it turned out that low prices can remain low for a long time.
Furthermore, Bitcoin’s halving in 2024 was expected to push prices higher by reducing supply, as happened in previous cycles. But instead of strong demand, 2026 has led to weak buying interest.
Source: Bitbo
While previous cycles saw large rallies after halvings, Bitcoin is now showing signs of exhaustion rather than growth.
Additionally, miners are making more in transaction fees than before, but the shift away from block rewards has not been smooth, putting pressure on Bitcoin’s image as “digital gold.”
Source: CoinGecko
Political factors also determine the crypto market
Pressure increased on February 21 when US President Donald Trump announced a 15% global tariff.
That decision caused investors to move money to safer assets such as the US dollar and gold. And increasing geopolitical tensions are putting even more pressure on an already vulnerable market.
The stress in the market is most evident among Bitcoin miners. Recently, mining problems have subsided, which usually happens when miners shut down machines because they are no longer profitable.
Source: Glassnode
At the same time, miners’ incomes have fallen due to lower prices and fewer transactions. To survive, many miners sell their Bitcoin holdings to cover costs.
Source: Glassnode
This situation, known as miner capitulation, often occurs near a market bottom and removes weaker players from the network. In the short term, however, these forced sales put more pressure on prices and make it more difficult for the market to recover quickly.
Liquidation is another catalyst
While global tariffs and pressure on miners fueled the decline, more than $600 million in forced liquidations in just 24 hours made the crash much worse.
When prices started to fall, many traders who had borrowed money to bet on higher prices were forced out of their positions, causing prices to fall even faster.
Yet the big question remains unanswered. Is this the last crash before the next recovery, driven by the halving cycle, or the start of a new, weaker era for crypto?
For now, the data suggests that until liquidations slow and MVRV levels improve, prices may still have room to fall.
Final summary
- Negative MVRV levels reflect widespread losses but do not guarantee an immediate recovery.
- Weak demand after the halving has tested Bitcoin’s long-standing growth story.