XRP is entering what analyst Will Taylor (@CryptoinsightUK) describes as a rare momentum reset, with technical conditions now lining up around a potentially sharp rise. In the latest edition of The Weekly Insight, Taylor argues that XRP’s recent downturn may have compressed momentum to an unusual degree, just as regulatory and ecosystem stories are resurfacing.
XRP Momentum Reaches Rare Extreme
The core of the setup is XRP’s relative strength index. According to the analyst, previous instances where XRP’s RSI reached oversold territory, or reached the 32 level or lower, have historically marked major lows. This time the value fell to around 30, described as the “second lowest RSI value ever for XRP”, although not quite a full oversold breakthrough.
Taylor’s key point is not just the level of the RSI, but also the speed of its decline. XRP’s RSI reportedly fell from roughly 91 to 30 in a historically short period, a move that analysts say is evidence that momentum may have swung too far too fast. “The market became too bearish too quickly,” Taylor wrote, adding that this is why he sees a likely case for another move higher.
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That view is directly tied to XRP’s current foundation. The analyst says XRP is now building from around $1.38, compared to around $0.38 before the previous explosive move. If XRP were to repeat a similar percentage gain to the November 2024 rally, when its value rose around 500% within weeks, this would imply a move towards around $6.50, according to Taylor.
The MACD, in Taylor’s reading, reinforces the same argument. The report details that XRP’s MACD is at an all-time low, indicating that downward momentum has extended further than in previous cycles. For Taylor, this sets the conditions for a strong reversal if momentum shifts, especially if the price remains above $1.38.
The analysis becomes more speculative when Elliott wave theory enters the discussion. The analyst says there is an argument that XRP may end up in wave three of a broader five-wave structure, with a possible target zone between $8 and $12. Taylor cautions that such a scenario is difficult to present without sounding speculative, but argues that major crypto expansions often occur in compressed time windows.
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The market setup is also framed against a potential regulatory catalyst. Taylor quotes Coinbase Chief Legal Officer Paul Grewal as saying the Clarity Act appears to be moving forward following an agreement with banks, while also pointing to comments from Eleanor Terrett that market attention has shifted to the week beginning May 11 as a potential markup period.
This timing is important specifically for XRP because Ripple has spoken out about the importance of legislation regarding the structure of the crypto market. The analyst also notes recent criticism from Cardano founder Charles Hoskinson, who has suggested that the Clarity Act is being advanced in a way that could primarily benefit XRP rather than the broader market. Taylor doesn’t fully endorse that position, but says the dispute highlights how important the bill could become if passed.
At the time of writing, XRP was trading at $1.4155.
Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com