Bitcoin [BTC] experienced a high inflow of Spot ETFs in the first half of the year. Demand from retail and institutional investors saw the leading crypto hit a new all-time high of $126,000 in the first week of October.
According to analysts, the decline of the past ten weeks has now turned into a bear market. According to CryptoQuant analyst Julio Moreno, there may not be a return to new all-time highs until 2026.
At the time of writing, the rising supply of stablecoins suggested that purchasing power was there, but sidelined. If this changes, a Bitcoin rally to $100,000 in January could be possible.
The choppy market conditions are causing Bitcoin buyers to hesitate
A recent AMBCrypto report found that advanced market participants’ short-term positioning was defensive. The 1-week 25-Delta Risk Reversal metric showed that institutions preferred to hedge against price declines, rather than betting on aggressive breakouts.
Source: BTC/USDT on TradingView
The 1-day chart showed that the predominant trend was bearish. Selling pressure was intense and buyers were unable to sustain a sustained rally. The attempt to break above the $94k resistance was also rejected.
Over the past two weeks, the $90k level has provided strong local resistance. Based on the available evidence, a bullish move above these two resistances does not appear imminent.
Why a Bitcoin Move Past $90,000 Is Likely
Liquidity attracts prices. The cluster of short liquidations from $91k-$96.4k and the proximity to Bitcoin’s market price meant that a near-term rally could be very likely. This rally could exceed $96,000 if it manages to trigger a liquidation cascade.
Since it would be mainly driven by the derivatives market, this move may have to be reversed. Traders can use such a liquidity move to take profits or sell some of their holdings.
Call to action from traders: stay out of the game
Market conditions were risky for both bulls and bears. Low liquidity around the holidays led to several sharp rejections at the $90,000 resistance. There were also indications of selling pressure from long-term holders minimal.
If Benjamin Cows In November it was already noted that a jump to the 200-day moving average (currently $106.8k) would be a macro lower high. Traders should not expect the rally to continue to new all-time highs.
Final thoughts
- Bitcoin has lacked a strong short-term trend and has faced multiple rejections at the $90,000 resistance over the past two weeks.
- Clustered liquidity overhead means a rally to $94,000-$96,000 is possible in January.
Disclaimer: The information presented does not constitute financial advice, investment advice, trading advice or any other form of advice and is solely the opinion of the writer